AOC has gotten roughly 2 million new registered accounts in 2 years....

How many do you think actually bought a pack yet? 10%? Less? More?

Just as a thought experiment, let's say 10%. The average pack price is $212.5. I am sure the most sold pack probably isn't the $375 one, but even if we stay conservative we have to account for the people who have bought extra cosmetics since they bought the pack. I am (totally) guessing an average of $200 per person that bought a pack. If that 10% number holds, we are talking $200 x 200,000 accounts = 40 million dollars.

I know, I know, I could be waaay off. I am really just pulling numbers out of my ass. But even if only 5% bought a pack, that's still 20 million dollars in the above example. Not exactly chump change, and promising for the game. Anyway, just something that occurred to me, that I wanted to share

Find more posts tagged with

Comments

Nagash

It's tough to say, to be honest, if you look at the Kickstarter it has 19,576 backers then you have to include the summer backers which was around the same as the Kickstarter that would be around 40000 which would be 2% of the current player base. I have no info on the sales of normal packs but I would high ball it at 50000 so that would be 11% which would make sense.

daveywavey

It'd explain why they're always smiling!

maouw

don't forget though, each of those packs includes around half of its value worth of pre-paid subscriptions, which means about half of whatever income they've made from the packs won't come in for the first 2-9 months after launch (it's money from the future).
That said, I'm sure some of us may have been purchasing more exclusive cosmetics as the months roll by.

Atama

maouw wrote: »

don't forget though, each of those packs includes around half of its value worth of pre-paid subscriptions, which means about half of whatever income they've made from the packs won't come in for the first 2-9 months after launch (it's money from the future).

What about those bandits who got lifetime subscriptions? Those leeches are scumbags!

Lore Dynamic

@Atama

Whaaaaaaa?!

Lifetime Subs!?

Oh gods...why couldn't I have discovered AoC sooner...?

/cries in corner

unknownsystemerror

Nagash wrote: »

It's tough to say, to be honest, if you look at the Kickstarter it has 19,576 backers then you have to include the summer backers which was around the same as the Kickstarter that would be around 40000 which would be 2% of the current player base. I have no info on the sales of normal packs but I would high ball it at 50000 so that would be 11% which would make sense.

Actually the total number of crowdfunding package holders was just over 20k with Summer combined. Summer actually only pulled around 1900 people. We of course have no numbers on Intrepid packs sold. But the latest number given for account sign up is close to 3 million now from Steven's answer on Jahlon's latest fireside chat from last week.

Atama

unknownsystemerror wrote: »

Nagash wrote: »

It's tough to say, to be honest, if you look at the Kickstarter it has 19,576 backers then you have to include the summer backers which was around the same as the Kickstarter that would be around 40000 which would be 2% of the current player base. I have no info on the sales of normal packs but I would high ball it at 50000 so that would be 11% which would make sense.

Actually the total number of crowdfunding package holders was just over 20k with Summer combined. Summer actually only pulled around 1900 people. We of course have no numbers on Intrepid packs sold. But the latest number given for account sign up is close to 3 million now from Steven's answer on Jahlon's latest fireside chat from last week.

Yeah the summer crowdfunding was a flop. Just a fraction of what Kickstarter brought in.

Nagash

Huh I thought it did better than that.

bloodprophet

Atama wrote: »

maouw wrote: »

don't forget though, each of those packs includes around half of its value worth of pre-paid subscriptions, which means about half of whatever income they've made from the packs won't come in for the first 2-9 months after launch (it's money from the future).

What about those bandits who got lifetime subscriptions? Those leeches are scumbags!

HEY!!
I resemble that statement!

Varkun

Yes that lifetime sub was just too good to pass up.

I would expect another large influx of people once the NDA is dropped on alpha 1. How many sales that could result in is any bodies guess.

daveywavey

Bah. Was the lifetime sub a "one time only" thing?

Valyoyo

daveywavey wrote: »

It'd explain why they're always smiling!

And here I thought they were smiling because they are proud of the community they gathered, the progress they are making and the general hype for the game.

Valyoyo

Varkun wrote: »

Yes that lifetime sub was just too good to pass up.

I would expect another large influx of people once the NDA is dropped on alpha 1. How many sales that could result in is any bodies guess.

That depends on how well they polished the alpha 1, and by that I mean how many bugs are discovered, quality of the graphics, and stability of the servers. But most importantly the promptness of how fast and well they solve the arrisen problems.

Warth

@Atama

I wouldn't exactly call it a flop. It was only ever created to accommodate the fans, that got screwed by Kickstarters very limited amount of payment options.
it was never primarily meant to bring in more funding. It was meant to give people the chance to back the game through paypal, which KS doesn't offer.

Jun Tang

How did you get the data

Nerror

Jun Tang wrote: »

How did you get the data

From Steven's recent interview: Around 800,000 accounts in oktober 2018 and just under 3 million now.

Around the 18:38 mark

https://youtu.be/ZOV_puvaIvU?t=1123

Atama

Warth wrote: »

@Atama

I wouldn't exactly call it a flop. It was only ever created to accommodate the fans, that got screwed by Kickstarters very limited amount of payment options.
it was never primarily meant to bring in more funding. It was meant to give people the chance to back the game through paypal, which KS doesn't offer.

I would. They set out 7 stretch goals and only reached the first one. It's obvious they expected a lot more participation than they received. I think there was a very vocal but very tiny minority that complained about not being able to pledge during Kickstarter, and that was what spurred the second bout of crowdfunding which was almost sad in how poorly it went.

It definitely wasn't worth the backlash. For those curious about the lifetime subscription, it was billed as a Kickstarter exclusive. Intrepid stated very clearly that you had to pledge to Braver or higher pledge or you'd never be able to get it again. They then went back on their word and offered it again during the second crowdfunding effort, which was a total slap in the face of everyone who pledged under the false claim that it was their only shot. They got raked over the coals for that deception, and rightfully so. The whole summer thing was an embarrassing debacle that eroded the trust of a number of community members. (Maybe not as much as the whole APOC thing, that's arguable.)

Suffice to say that you should never expect to see the lifetime subscription offered again. I hope they learned their lesson over that one.

daveywavey

Atama wrote: »

Suffice to say that you should never expect to see the lifetime subscription offered again. I hope they learned their lesson over that one.

Would you have wanted to buy it a second time, had it been known beforehand that you'd be able to buy it again? As long as it's up for the same price, I don't see the problem.

Atama

daveywavey wrote: »

Atama wrote: »

Suffice to say that you should never expect to see the lifetime subscription offered again. I hope they learned their lesson over that one.

Would you have wanted to buy it a second time, had it been known beforehand that you'd be able to buy it again? As long as it's up for the same price, I don't see the problem.

I believe they jacked the price up, which is how some people defended the move, suggesting it was only the price that was exclusive to KS.

(Clearly BS, they didn’t state in KS that the price was the exclusive part.)

But you can’t promise that something is available a limited time and then offer it again. That’s deceptive advertising and theoretically could get them in trouble (with the FTC at least) if anyone pursued it.

As to why it’s wrong to do that from more than a legal perspective, I’ll share the analogy I shared before in discussing the issue. Let’s say you had an exclusive perk for a software preorder, and you are a gamer with a limited income. You can afford to buy the game now and get the exclusive, or wait after your paycheck and buy it when you have more money, but it won’t be a preorder and you’ll miss out on the perk. If you but it now you have to live off ramen and crackers for a couple weeks.

You know it’s now or never so you buy it. You suffer knowing that you will at least have something to show for it. Then release day comes and you pop over to the store to pick up your game.

In the store you see advertisements saying that you can buy the game and it includes the perk that was supposed to be a preorder exclusive. You go up to the clerk, asking about the perk, and they reply that the whole “exclusive” perk scam happens all the time to increase preorder numbers but that publisher always offers the perks for their game after release to ensure sales are good.

How ticked off would you be? You forked over the cash early because you were pressured into it based on a lie. You could have just waited and bought it when you could better afford it without suffering. You’d be really angry and justified in it, because they got your money based on fraud.

That’s the equivalent of what Intrepid did. Now I do believe that they were trying to do good, by making something available to people who couldn’t buy from KS because they couldn’t use a payment method acceptable to the platform. But that doesn’t excuse the fact that they claimed it would be exclusive.

Child Item