Ashes Release Date Estimate Poll

Just a quick poll, nothing too serious, to ascertain the general trend of what the community are predicting the release date for AoC might be.

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akabear

https://strawpoll.com/rb95fefbe

Noaani

End of 2023 at the earliest.

Your poll doesn't go that far.

Nagash

2024

akabear

Interesting to see that there are thoughts to go longer than 2023 even 2024.

I frivolously based the scale on the comment some time ago that Beta would be relatively quick and so if Alpha is over sometime after mid year next year, based on the most recent schedule, and perhaps wishful thinking a pause and then Alpha following not so long after then launch can`t be that far away. will be an interesting journey to see where it really ends up.

Sorf

I actually hope 2023 or longer, nevermind the global pandemic and not working in offices etc there's alot in this game/world so I hope they take their sweet time to do it right.

After listening to how Steven talks in the latest couple monthly updates it sounds like they plan to do just that, so I'm happy. You only get to launch once and if they can get it right, the success will follow imo especially with how streamers can bring people in.

Hellfar

The poll shouldn't have so many 2022 options. I highly doubt they will have a stable product prior to Q4 2023 imho.

maouw

we're on the cusp of a1, and that's scheduled to finish in May 2021.
That's ~6months of one testing phase.

after a1 they'll be collating feedback,
designing solutions
prototyping solutions
implementing and tweaking
adding new content (including 64 augment trees)
THEN we'll be ready to start alpha 2.

I haven't even mentioned beta yet.

After all the alphas they're going to need a few months at least for polish.
(I've read a suggestion that polish should encompass 50% of total development time - which I honestly don't think is what AoC will do - but if that were the case we're looking at like 3+ years dedicated to polish after beta2 is done).
Beat the hype drums, do all the conferences
(hopefully take a calm-before-the-storm pre-launchday break?)

I will be SHOOK if they release in 2022!

Cold 0ne FTB

maouw wrote: »

we're on the cusp of a1, and that's scheduled to finish in May 2021.
That's ~6months of one testing phase.

after a1 they'll be collating feedback,
designing solutions
prototyping solutions
implementing and tweaking
adding new content (including 64 augment trees)
THEN we'll be ready to start alpha 2.

I haven't even mentioned beta yet.

After all the alphas they're going to need a few months at least for polish.
(I've read a suggestion that polish should encompass 50% of total development time - which I honestly don't think is what AoC will do - but if that were the case we're looking at like 3+ years dedicated to polish after beta2 is done).
Beat the hype drums, do all the conferences
(hopefully take a calm-before-the-storm pre-launchday break?)

I will be SHOOK if they release in 2022!

Exactly what they said. Based on the current schedule Alpha 1 will be finished by the end of Q1 2021. They will need a period of time to adjust the game after that, we will likely not hear anything about Alpha 2 for several months. Alpha 2 will likely be announced around the same time alpha was announced placing it around Q4 of 2021- Q1 2022. Then we have the two Betas. Beta 1 will likely occur Q4 of 2022 and Beta 2 in Q2-Q3 of 2023. Realistically we are looking at a 2024 release date. That is part of why Intrepid isn't giving us a date because realistically all of this hype is great but it came at a poor time.

This game is 3-4 years away assuming no major setbacks. That being said, Intrepid has really increased their momentum. There has a been a staggering level of progress made since Apocalypse. When we hit the Alpha 2/Beta 1 area we will likely see Apocalypse coming back up (whenever the majority of core systems are in place and the bulk of the work is done) because Intrepid will still be trying to carry the momentum they have made earlier.

Also this is the one of the flaws with them sharing development with us. It creates an unrealistic expectation about where the game is. As some people miss interrupt the testing environments as a properly functioning server. There is a long road ahead. enjoy the hype, get involved in the community. There are a lot of great content creators Jahlon is a really good one. Share flaws you have seen in other games, give your opinion on what you see in the Ashes footage, you would be surprised how good Intrepid is at listening to player feedback. There is a lot you can do ahead of time but until the Betas are released we won't be able to pin point a true ETA for the game.

Vashramire

We're going to need to see the gap between A1 and A2 to get an accurate reference for how fast they can push stuff out and tweak things.

Varkun

Computer say's no!

arsnn

There are barely any realisitc time windows represented in the poll

Varkun

I guess the simple answer is that it will be ready when its ready.

Content push is well under way for alpha 2 according to last directors letter, road map for alpha 1 testing is set for next 6 months. New larger round of hiring is set to begin in January getting closer to the 140 in house staff mark Steven mentioned sometime back. The Beta phases are supposed to be quite short only a number of weeks just depends how much time there is between the Beta tests.

Best gestimation pie in the sky navel gaze estimate is very late 2022 to early 2023. But honestly refer back to my first sentence.

CROW3

when. it's. done.

akabear

Interesting from the poll, albeit short of date range some would have liked, and as such perhaps skewed results but 76% believe the release date will be around 2022 to early 2023.

Whilst the general community would like to see the game released when polished and done, I still think that the business acumen will need to prevail at some time to manage cost/time.

Making the following broad assumptions to illustrate the thought process:.

Statistics show that the average salary for an average job in America is $5,555. / month
The real cost of keeping an employee varies between business but a basic average is somewhere around 1.2 - 1.4. Let`s use 1.4 for argument
This means average business cost would be $7,777 / month
The company will ramp up to 140 employees.
Assuming for ease of calculation the above is true, that is a minimum cash burn of $1,088,780 / month

Whilst there is likely an overrun on this project, I think there is a point in every business where they get critical of the immediate cost, even if the future return is likely to compensate. It is a considerable cost and often a risk to the project to keep going, so time will see

Average Salary
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/Average-Salary-per-Month
Cost of Employee
https://www.sba.gov/blog/how-much-does-employee-cost-you#:~:text=There's a rule of thumb,little harder to pin down.

Noaani

akabear wrote: »

Whilst the general community would like to see the game released when polished and done, I still think that the business acumen will need to prevail at some time to manage cost/time.

The reason most projects release before they are ready is because of a need to appease shareholders.

It may be that they see all the money spent on development and want a return on it, or it may be that the title in question needs to be released in a specific quarter in order for the company to hit it's targets.

Neither of these applies to Intrepid. While the game obviously can't be in development forever, the funding is there to keep the game in development as long as is reasonable to get it ready - and there isn't the pressure of shareholders.

Late 2023 is the absolute earliest we should expect to see the release. Any earlier, and the game will suffer the same fate as every other game that released before it was ready.

PlagueMonk

Unsure why the poll starts so early. We have been told roughly 2 years from now and when have you EVER seen a game released BEFORE it's estimated timeline???

So I'm being hopeful and say summer 2023, giving them an 8-9 month cushion.

Cold 0ne FTB

I still think 2023 is ambitious. It really depends on how well the alpha cycles go. Assuming that they are either on time or do really well the betas will hopefully be in 2022. Honestly I just want to see gameplay at this point. Its more of a countdown to alpha 2 than countdown for release.

Nerror

Tomorrow. it will come out tomorrow. You guys wait and see, one day I'll be right!

daveywavey

Nerror wrote: »

Tomorrow. it will come out tomorrow. You guys wait and see, one day I'll be right!

I want to see this same post every day until release.....

SerChubulas

A lot more 2023 predictions regardless of the quarter than I was expecting. In some of you guys' predictions that would be another 3 years of development on top of the already 4-5 years. That would mean it will take 7-8 years of development total for this game...I understand the reasoning why you guys want to wait, regardless that is a very long time. I think a lot of you guys are too concerned about the time it takes to develop the game versus the staff that is developing the game. From what Steven has said about late nights I don't think it has anything to do with work ethic but rather the amount of staff. Money isn't a issue for them, from Kickstarter to Steven's success to the preorders they aren't hurting. I understand COVID now is hurting them but when we are talking about completing the game in 2023 there is plenty of time to adjust to make up for lost ground. Steven already mentioned hiring at the start of the year so here to hoping it won't take to 2023 to finish this game...

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