AoC isn't as Niche as everyone thinks

So here's my take...

WoW Hardcore, Extraction Shooters, Survival, Classic WoW. We are definitely seeing a trend in what gamers want. Theme Park/Railroad content games are going the way of Guitar Hero.

Blizzard saw so much success with Classic and Hardcore they made them official.

Survival games,some if not most have come with hardcore rule sets,( dropping all gear, open PVP) Ark being one of the biggest had both of these. Now even Blizzard is jumping in although I suspect it will be a watered down for everyone experience.

Extraction shooters stemming from Tarkov's success(very hardcore style game) have started popping up everywhere.

If I know one thing it's when companies and investors start putting their money in to it you know the numbers are there in some fashion and they like what they see.

All I hear from everyone, Including Asmongold and other streamers is this is a niche game and it's not for everyone. Don While I don't disagree I think the degree of which they are implying is over stated, to the point that they think it might not be a very big game at all.

While it certainly won't be COD, I also think it's potential could be much higher then New World saw at its peak. Which would be considered a massive success.

I Understand that people don't want to get their hopes up and there's a lot of cynical people and deservedly so but if I am going to be real about it, the more I see the better it gets. It's like going from a narcissistic relationship to a healthy one, sometimes it just seems too good to be true but that's more about your past relationship then your current one. Just like that I think it's only fair we treat AoC and the devs with their fair shake. They have done nothing but be completely upfront and honest and currently in my eyes have the most integrity I have seen in a while and I have been around for a while.(I played UO and EQ1 a lot)

There is a lot to look forward to and don't let your past disappoints ruin your experience. Judge it on its own merits. Don't buy into the cynical majority and copy past the copium quotes. I might be disappointed, that's definitely a possibility but I am also ok with that. At least as far as I can tell they are putting their best foot forward and for now that's enough.

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Noaani

JamesSunderland wrote: »

If Ashes reach L2/AA Highest population peaks, i certainly believe Steven will be quite happy.

The problem is, both of those games peaks are heavily reliant on the Korean market.

Based on some discussions I've had recently with people that were in a position to know these things back in the day, the NA/EU population of EQ2 was higher than the NA/EU population of L2.

I've said it a few times - the way Ashes is shaping up, it needs a solid marketing push in Korea.

That said, the numbers in the above chart are not accurate. There were at least 7 MMO's that broke 1 million subscribers before 2008 on that list - but the chart only shows 4.

JamesSunderland

Noaani wrote: »

JamesSunderland wrote: »

If Ashes reach L2/AA Highest population peaks, i certainly believe Steven will be quite happy.

The problem is, both of those games peaks are heavily reliant on the Korean market.

Based on some discussions I've had recently with people that were in a position to know these things back in the day, the NA/EU population of EQ2 was higher than the NA/EU population of L2.

I've said it a few times - the way Ashes is shaping up, it needs a solid marketing push in Korea.

That said, the numbers in the above chart are not accurate. There were at least 7 MMO's that broke 1 million subscribers before 2008 on that list - but the chart only shows 4.

The AA peak is for the Trion West(NA/EU) Release only, and yes EQ2 had a higher population than L2(Official Servers) in NA/EU for the majority of time.

As for the baseless accusation of lack of accuracy in the chart numbers for the MMORPGs present in it because of the absence of other MMORPG you didn't even mentioned by name in the already overcrowded chart, i will not even bother.

Noaani

JamesSunderland wrote: »

The AA peak is for the Trion West(NA/EU) Release only, and yes EQ2 had a higher population than L2(Official Servers) in NA/EU for the majority of time.

I'm not sure why you are adding the "official server" qualifier.

If we are talking about the success of a game for it's developer or publicher, unofficial servers very much do not count.

As to Archeage, the games NA/EU peak was very short. If we ignore the first 3 months of the game being live (actually a good idea when comparing MMO populations), EQ and EQ2 each beat Archeage - though Archeage probably had a higher revenue (I've never actually talked to anyone about Archages revenue).

As for the baseless accusation of lack of accuracy in the chart numbers for the MMORPGs present in it because of the absence of other MMORPG you didn't even mentioned by name in the already overcrowded chart, i will not even bother.

It wasn't an accusation, and I was talking about games already on that list. There are three of them that I know broke 1 million active subs that are not listed as being that high.

The reason it wasn't an accusation is the list was made with public info that wasn't always complete, and probably fairly represents that. It was something of a controversy back in the day when the website was active.

An example of the controversy is that an unconfirmed report about SWG gave a specific player count that was online at one time, and MMOG used that number as the total active subscriptions - while at the same time using total units sold figures from Blizzard as their figure for WoW.

This left them in a position where they had a chart that had an unofficial concurrent player count and an official total units sold count, on the same chart labeled active subscriptions. From what I can see, both of those numbers are on the chart you posted.

JamesSunderland

Noaani wrote: »

I'm not sure why you are adding the "official server" qualifier.

If we are talking about the success of a game for it's developer or publicher, unofficial servers very much do not count.

As to Archeage, the games NA/EU peak was very short. If we ignore the first 3 months of the game being live (actually a good idea when comparing MMO populations), EQ and EQ2 each beat Archeage - though Archeage probably had a higher revenue (I've never actually talked to anyone about Archages revenue).

The qualifier is because of the insane number of private servers that soared into existance around 2006 and onwards and stole tons of players from the Lineage 2 Official servers crippling its numbers.

Would you have numbers regarding the first 3 months of AA population to back up that EQ and EQ2 higher population claim?

The over 1 million number for SWG is used in reference to its number of sold copies, the concurrent number of active players is mostly referenced around the ~300K mark throught its early years.

Make sure to mention the other errors by name like Dofus for example.
As for Lineage 2, EQ and EQ2 which are the most important for the point, please make sure to point out incorrect numbers for those or even provide more accurate charts you believe can help your point,
i didn't claimed the chart to be perfect for all games in any moment.

Noaani

JamesSunderland wrote: »

Would you have numbers regarding the first 3 months of AA population to back up that EQ and EQ2 higher population claim?

No.

I don't record discussions with friends.

As always, you are free to not believe me.

The over 1 million number for SWG is used in reference to its number of sold copies

I actually did think you would make the assumption that the million I was talking about would include SWG when I talked about it in my previous post. I was going to address it in that post, but I figured it was getting long enough.

It is not one of the three I was talking about.

As for Lineage 2, EQ and EQ2 which are the most important for the point, please make sure to point out incorrect numbers for those or even provide more accurate charts you believe can help your point

I think the ket point to take away with the numbers for these games is that L2 without korea *may* not have even made it on to that chart.

i didn't claimed the chart to be perfect for all games in any moment.

I'm not at all suggesting you did, I am just making sure others have the above information.

JamesSunderland

Sure, i will not doubt the "accuracy" of your friends @Noaani , even tho i have friends that worked for Trion during Archeage Release era to know such numbers.

I only mentioned the over 1 million SWG number because you mentioned its numbers inconsistency in the chart.

Lineage 2 did indeed go over the 200K mark across NA/EU around ~2005 to make it into the chart.

But as always, your are free to make your assumptions.

Noaani

JamesSunderland wrote: »

Sure, i will not doubt the "accuracy" of your friends Noaani , even tho i have friends that worked for Trion during Archeage Release era to know such numbers.

Ask them how long the game had over 500k paying subscribers.

Lineage 2 did indeed go over the 200K mark across NA/EU around ~2005 to make it into the chart.

It may have - the figure I was told is that it was under a specific number, but that number was slightly higher than 200k. This is why I specifically emphasised *may*.

If it did indeed get over 200k NA/EU, it was by a small amount.

I will say that if Ashes maintains a population of 200k, the game will likely survive just fine. It may not ever make Stevens investment back, but it should stay live for a while.

The problem there is the *maintain* part of that.

Again, this is why I have said a few times now that Intrepid need a marketing push in Korea.

Abarat

Noaani wrote: »

As always, you are free to not believe me.

ever since seeing you make up what intrepid's design pillars are (specifically related to corruption), I never do.

the whole "we know intrepid did not intend corruption to be a deterrent - they told us" or whatever. then you said you got that from the forums.

sad times

Abarat

Noaani wrote: »

q
It may have - the figure I was told is that it was under a specific number, but that number was slightly higher than 200k. This is why I specifically emphasised *may*.

Who told you that?

Noaani

Abarat wrote: »

Noaani wrote: »

As always, you are free to not believe me.

ever since seeing you make up what intrepid's design pillars are (specifically related to corruption), I never do.

You are getting me mixed up with someone else.

Dygz

JamesSunderland wrote: »

You're are talking about West(NA/EU) only right?

I am. Yes.

JamesSunderland wrote: »

If Ashes reach L2/AA Highest population peaks, I certainly believe Steven will be quite happy.

Yep. And that would be awesome. I think we agree.

Fiddlez

Based on the idea that they keep exceeding expectations with their monthly video,...I doubt this will see small numbers once the hype is over.

I suspect this game will probably grow past launch as well,maybe a small downturn but if Intrepid keeps it up I think everyone including Steven will be surprised.

It's funny to me because the Mage combat video was way better then people realized.

Crowfall bombed and probably not many played it but the combat was surprisingly good,visually basic but highly addicting. Group pvp sucked me in for months even though the rest of the game was pretty bad. Soon as I saw the spell mechanics in AoC and seeing spells with combo/slash mechanics. Let's just say I was stoked.

Basically only Intrepid can mess this up but as long as it launches it should be super successful.

KingDDD

Fiddlez wrote: »

Based on the idea that they keep exceeding expectations with their monthly video,...I doubt this will see small numbers once the hype is over.

I suspect this game will probably grow past launch as well,maybe a small downturn but if Intrepid keeps it up I think everyone including Steven will be surprised.

It's funny to me because the Mage combat video was way better then people realized.

Crowfall bombed and probably not many played it but the combat was surprisingly good,visually basic but highly addicting. Group pvp sucked me in for months even though the rest of the game was pretty bad. Soon as I saw the spell mechanics in AoC and seeing spells with combo/slash mechanics. Let's just say I was stoked.

Basically only Intrepid can mess this up but as long as it launches it should be super successful.

The thing about Crowfall is they sold 70k+ copies of the game. While some of that's inflated by Kickstarter and people buying multiple copies, it still illustrates how this type of game can achieve relatively high sales numbers even with abysmal marketing.

As long as ashes has content loops that facilitates making positive relationships and uses those to onboard players into the meat and potatoes of the game, the sky is the limit. There just isn't anything like ashes out there.

Azherae

KingDDD wrote: »

Fiddlez wrote: »

Based on the idea that they keep exceeding expectations with their monthly video,...I doubt this will see small numbers once the hype is over.

I suspect this game will probably grow past launch as well,maybe a small downturn but if Intrepid keeps it up I think everyone including Steven will be surprised.

It's funny to me because the Mage combat video was way better then people realized.

Crowfall bombed and probably not many played it but the combat was surprisingly good,visually basic but highly addicting. Group pvp sucked me in for months even though the rest of the game was pretty bad. Soon as I saw the spell mechanics in AoC and seeing spells with combo/slash mechanics. Let's just say I was stoked.

Basically only Intrepid can mess this up but as long as it launches it should be super successful.

The thing about Crowfall is they sold 70k+ copies of the game. While some of that's inflated by Kickstarter and people buying multiple copies, it still illustrates how this type of game can achieve relatively high sales numbers even with abysmal marketing.

As long as ashes has content loops that facilitates making positive relationships and uses those to onboard players into the meat and potatoes of the game, the sky is the limit. There just isn't anything like ashes out there.

For my clarity, if 70k is high, what do you consider 'low' sales numbers?

CROW3

KingDDD wrote: »

The thing about Crowfall is they sold 70k+ copies of the game. While some of that's inflated by Kickstarter and people buying multiple copies, it still illustrates how this type of game can achieve relatively high sales numbers even with abysmal marketing.

Just to clarify, Crowfall’s failure wasn’t a marketing problem. It failed from the bottom up (just being a poor game with some terrible gameplay decisions) and from the top down (bad financial management, poor leadership, and short term thinking).

KingDDD

Azherae wrote: »

KingDDD wrote: »

Fiddlez wrote: »

Based on the idea that they keep exceeding expectations with their monthly video,...I doubt this will see small numbers once the hype is over.

I suspect this game will probably grow past launch as well,maybe a small downturn but if Intrepid keeps it up I think everyone including Steven will be surprised.

It's funny to me because the Mage combat video was way better then people realized.

Crowfall bombed and probably not many played it but the combat was surprisingly good,visually basic but highly addicting. Group pvp sucked me in for months even though the rest of the game was pretty bad. Soon as I saw the spell mechanics in AoC and seeing spells with combo/slash mechanics. Let's just say I was stoked.

Basically only Intrepid can mess this up but as long as it launches it should be super successful.

The thing about Crowfall is they sold 70k+ copies of the game. While some of that's inflated by Kickstarter and people buying multiple copies, it still illustrates how this type of game can achieve relatively high sales numbers even with abysmal marketing.

As long as ashes has content loops that facilitates making positive relationships and uses those to onboard players into the meat and potatoes of the game, the sky is the limit. There just isn't anything like ashes out there.

For my clarity, if 70k is high, what do you consider 'low' sales numbers?

High is relative based on the game. For a full loot, must have a guild, plagued by lag, no pve, cartoon art style, 0 marketing, Kickstarter game I'd say 100k sales with a 50% retention rate (dependent on shop purchases and monthly subs) is sustainable.

The thing about Crowfall is while sales numbers were high enough to keep the game going, the retention rate was probably in the single digits.

KingDDD

CROW3 wrote: »

KingDDD wrote: »

The thing about Crowfall is they sold 70k+ copies of the game. While some of that's inflated by Kickstarter and people buying multiple copies, it still illustrates how this type of game can achieve relatively high sales numbers even with abysmal marketing.

Just to clarify, Crowfall’s failure wasn’t a marketing problem. It failed from the bottom up (just being a poor game with some terrible gameplay decisions) and from the top down (bad financial management, poor leadership, and short term thinking).

I can't tell you the number of people who posted on reddit, fansites, discord, etc who all said they were unaware the game "launched". Was Crowfall a game that was generally average to mediocre in every way possible, yes. But if people aren't playing they aren't paying.

Azherae

KingDDD wrote: »

Azherae wrote: »

KingDDD wrote: »

Fiddlez wrote: »

Based on the idea that they keep exceeding expectations with their monthly video,...I doubt this will see small numbers once the hype is over.

I suspect this game will probably grow past launch as well,maybe a small downturn but if Intrepid keeps it up I think everyone including Steven will be surprised.

It's funny to me because the Mage combat video was way better then people realized.

Crowfall bombed and probably not many played it but the combat was surprisingly good,visually basic but highly addicting. Group pvp sucked me in for months even though the rest of the game was pretty bad. Soon as I saw the spell mechanics in AoC and seeing spells with combo/slash mechanics. Let's just say I was stoked.

Basically only Intrepid can mess this up but as long as it launches it should be super successful.

The thing about Crowfall is they sold 70k+ copies of the game. While some of that's inflated by Kickstarter and people buying multiple copies, it still illustrates how this type of game can achieve relatively high sales numbers even with abysmal marketing.

As long as ashes has content loops that facilitates making positive relationships and uses those to onboard players into the meat and potatoes of the game, the sky is the limit. There just isn't anything like ashes out there.

For my clarity, if 70k is high, what do you consider 'low' sales numbers?

High is relative based on the game. For a full loot, must have a guild, plagued by lag, no pve, cartoon art style, 0 marketing, Kickstarter game I'd say 100k sales with a 50% retention rate (dependent on shop purchases and monthly subs) is sustainable.

The thing about Crowfall is while sales numbers were high enough to keep the game going, the retention rate was probably in the single digits.

I'd say that my concern for Ashes is the same given the other similar games that probably will release before it, and how relatively quickly a bigger more experienced studio can add/pivot the features we value in Ashes given their historical experience with those features.

Fiddlez

CROW3 wrote: »

KingDDD wrote: »

The thing about Crowfall is they sold 70k+ copies of the game. While some of that's inflated by Kickstarter and people buying multiple copies, it still illustrates how this type of game can achieve relatively high sales numbers even with abysmal marketing.

Just to clarify, Crowfall’s failure wasn’t a marketing problem. It failed from the bottom up (just being a poor game with some terrible gameplay decisions) and from the top down (bad financial management, poor leadership, and short term thinking).

They had something there but yeah there was definitely bigger problems. The core players playing it from closed beta even left. I personally think they were too invested in the Large scale.

Fiddlez

KingDDD wrote: »

CROW3 wrote: »

KingDDD wrote: »

The thing about Crowfall is they sold 70k+ copies of the game. While some of that's inflated by Kickstarter and people buying multiple copies, it still illustrates how this type of game can achieve relatively high sales numbers even with abysmal marketing.

Just to clarify, Crowfall’s failure wasn’t a marketing problem. It failed from the bottom up (just being a poor game with some terrible gameplay decisions) and from the top down (bad financial management, poor leadership, and short term thinking).

I can't tell you the number of people who posted on reddit, fansites, discord, etc who all said they were unaware the game "launched". Was Crowfall a game that was generally average to mediocre in every way possible, yes. But if people aren't playing they aren't paying.

It was definitely a problem for sure. One of many.

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