1st of July for a2 start, with the date being announced on April 1st. Just so nobody believes it and everyone thinks Steven is trolling.
April 1st would be a great day to announce A2 has been delayed. Pretty sure Steven doesn't have to guts to pull a joke like that atm. Someone would probably get so butthurt they'd burn down the studio
Q1 or Q2.
Q3 or Q4 makes no sense due to the risk of delays along with vacations and holidays.
Q3 and Q4 are the biggest launch months. September to November is always big for games. Including MMOs.
My prediction October 1st with a sept 24th stream.
My copium wants to say June 4th but I don't think there's any reason to launch A2 early
They don't need big launch months? They have over 100k users for alpha 2 already.
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darthadenMember, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
A slow month would actually be preferred. Why wait until there's other games to distract people from testing? Let's see how the servers hold up when there's 10k players online at the same time and nodes start developing
Well let's say they forgo giving us a Ranger, Fighter, or Tank update stream like they did with Cleric. We still need Bard and Rogue before A2 drops so that's 2 streams there (Summoner isn't in at A2 start but the other archetypes are).
Then we know we're getting some sort of crafting update at some point per the April or May stream (which Steven said was soon even then) so that's another stream.
Then we know we're getting a Caravan update at some point in the next couple of months from what Steven said in the Village update stream.
Then Steven wrote in Discord that we should expect a "couple more node showcases before A2" so that's at least 2 more node showcases.
Then this months stream is an update involving "Rivers" so you could guess it's maybe something like Fishing or maybe a tiny naval update (even though naval won't be in A2 at the beginning).
And finally, maybe they do another "Year in review" stream in December like they did last year instead of an actual update.
So that alone is 7 or 8 streams before A2. They also need to do spot-testing with inviting PI > A1 > A2 backers in that order first.
So I'll say September or October next year for A2. I doubt Steven would want to launch A2 in December as that means he'd most likely need staff actively on call over Christmas to deal with any server outages that would almost certainly arise so it makes sense to launch A2 a couple months before Christmas to allow the playerbase to die down and stuff to stabilise.
Monday, August the 5th, because that is the day my summer vacation ends and work begins anew with a super busy month. July 1st would be amazing, but I doubt I am that lucky
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darthadenMember, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
If I had a real guess... late Q1. I think what they have been showing off lately is already highly playable. There may be a lot more systems that are still mock ups than we are aware of, but it just doesn't seem that way to me. I don't think a persistent alpha state is very far off just from what I have seen of recent gameplay. Things are rough in spots, but it looks like the frameworks are there and I have played worse looking launch states.
Awesome to see so many well-placed guesses - some got it right others have already been proven wrong. Give it another shot within the Q3 timeline to get the bragging rights that's almost as cool as guessing the date the first time.
9th of july Steven birthday i beleive (also anniversary of A1 preview weekend)
14th of july Anniversary of A1
15th of july same as above but delayed one day since the above date is a sunday and monday would make more sense
They gave a big hint in one of the latest live streams about which three days of the week it will likely be. The probability eliminates 57% of the days in Q3.
Comments
Obviously before the Great Flare.
April 1st would be a great day to announce A2 has been delayed. Pretty sure Steven doesn't have to guts to pull a joke like that atm. Someone would probably get so butthurt they'd burn down the studio
Q3 and Q4 are the biggest launch months. September to November is always big for games. Including MMOs.
My prediction October 1st with a sept 24th stream.
My copium wants to say June 4th but I don't think there's any reason to launch A2 early
They don't need big launch months? They have over 100k users for alpha 2 already.
Then we know we're getting some sort of crafting update at some point per the April or May stream (which Steven said was soon even then) so that's another stream.
Then we know we're getting a Caravan update at some point in the next couple of months from what Steven said in the Village update stream.
Then Steven wrote in Discord that we should expect a "couple more node showcases before A2" so that's at least 2 more node showcases.
Then this months stream is an update involving "Rivers" so you could guess it's maybe something like Fishing or maybe a tiny naval update (even though naval won't be in A2 at the beginning).
And finally, maybe they do another "Year in review" stream in December like they did last year instead of an actual update.
So that alone is 7 or 8 streams before A2. They also need to do spot-testing with inviting PI > A1 > A2 backers in that order first.
So I'll say September or October next year for A2. I doubt Steven would want to launch A2 in December as that means he'd most likely need staff actively on call over Christmas to deal with any server outages that would almost certainly arise so it makes sense to launch A2 a couple months before Christmas to allow the playerbase to die down and stuff to stabilise.
There is no alpha 3 or open beta.
Probably the most accurate reason for a prediction yet
Oh wait, this isn't Camelot Unchained
If I had a real guess... late Q1. I think what they have been showing off lately is already highly playable. There may be a lot more systems that are still mock ups than we are aware of, but it just doesn't seem that way to me. I don't think a persistent alpha state is very far off just from what I have seen of recent gameplay. Things are rough in spots, but it looks like the frameworks are there and I have played worse looking launch states.
Right now i think the same, due to the Quarter Three Announcement.
14th of july Anniversary of A1
15th of july same as above but delayed one day since the above date is a sunday and monday would make more sense