So when do you guys think A2 phase IV starts? Place your guesses here!

Based on the Phase III slide, that's when we'll get the secondary archetype specialization for Cleric and Tank, but nothing for the other 6. There is also a lot of the map and content we're still not seeing that needs to be tested. These are not things to be tested in a beta. Betas are for bugfixing and polishing finished content, and the Ashes betas are apparently fairly short in comparison.

So there has to at least be a phase IV, maybe even a phase V as well, before the betas start.

I'mma say January 2026 for Phase IV, assuming there is also a phase V.

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RocketFarmer

“Oceans is Phase 10”

rollox

I wouldn't get hung up on the number of the phase. Ultimately the Alpha will be the test bed for beta candidate. So essentially anyone in Alpha will be testing the beta before there even is a beta.

The question is how much content do they hold back. And what development branch will be used to establish the beta client and production client. I suspect that will be the alpha servers as they will also be the public test realms in the future.

It's really Intrepids call as to how they approach this. But in my development world I would limit the size, features, and scope of the beta and use my alpha test realms as the place to validate the final release candidate. And maybe move that to beta for a week or two or three before giving a thumbs up to go no go for production

Oh and my guess... Hopefully right around September 2030. As that is the time I can retire from work and put all my time into my hobbies.

Nerror

Yeah they can decide to have 20 phases if they want

What matters is the content, and a lot is still missing in the phase III roadmap. This is just about guessing when we'll start seeing the rest of the content. Especially the secondary archetype stuff needs to be thoroughly tested for all the classes. I certainly hope they don't plan on doing that in-house only before beta.

Michael

Who knows. I'm not going to speculate. But I'm excited to test through the phases that are currently planned.

Xeeg

Nerror wrote: »

I'mma say January 2026 for Phase IV, assuming there is also a phase V.

I see your January and raise you 3 months to April 2026.

Christmas 25 for Naval content as part of Phase 3 and then 3 months of testing combined systems.

Don't forget the additional $120 charge for Phase IV,V and VI, not included in the Phase I, II, III purchase.

Faimith

I actually assume there will only be three phases, with Phase 3 continuing all the way until the launch of the game itself.

Xzanobia

at a completely speculative guess im going to say you wont see full content until Christmas 26 at which point there will be a alpha end date and a beta start date and i think a summer 27 release . but totally speculative and probably miles off wishful thinking on my part maybe lol .

Azherae

Hopefully without sounding too negative I'll say that if we don't expect Secondaries for Tank and Cleric until Phase 3 (and I would doubt them being at the start of it), then if we define Phase IV as perhaps 'able to reach the level 50 cap and begin tests of such content', then I think your Jan 2026 is too early.

The entire leveling curve and augment system, as well as the 'feeling' of how to tune it alongside everything else, is one of the hardest parts, and the information gathering required for it is massive imo. Doing it in an MMO environment in under 18 months would be amazing.

Now, obv, they could do what they did this time and have a 'Phase Marker'/separation that doesn't match my understanding of it, but I'm trying to stick closer to what I think you mean.

Ashes' combat design introduces some constraints to things that aren't immediately obvious, both because of how ambitious the game is, and because of the mild 'mismatch' between the combat type and the tactics type of the game. I expect the combat teams to be hard at work navigating these constraints within the Secondary Archetype designs.

Are we even getting Spears before Phase IV (I guess my Prediction is Dec 2027)?

Otr

Nerror wrote: »

Based on the Phase III slide, that's when we'll get the secondary archetype specialization for Cleric and Tank, but nothing for the other 6. There is also a lot of the map and content we're still not seeing that needs to be tested. These are not things to be tested in a beta. Betas are for bugfixing and polishing finished content, and the Ashes betas are apparently fairly short in comparison.

So there has to at least be a phase IV, maybe even a phase V as well, before the betas start.

I'mma say January 2026 for Phase IV, assuming there is also a phase V.

They should have started with iV, V, VI and then go with I, II and III.
This proved successful in the past, long time ago...

Ludullu

I expect it to be 6 weeks later. And the next phase another 6 weeks later.

And yes, I know that Phase 3 breaks this timeline

Azherae

Ludullu_(NiKr) wrote: »

I expect it to be 6 weeks later. And the next phase another 6 weeks later.

And yes, I know that Phase 3 breaks this timeline

Right, this is why I say it's too early.

Just multiply "features that should definitely be deployed alone in the sequence to prevent testing cross-issues" by 6 weeks.

Even if generous and assuming we get Augments from 2 Archetypes at a time, and that most of Naval can happen in one shot, as long as we assume that Summoner Archetype comes by itself after Phase III start, and Tank and Cleric Augments, even if they come together, are also after Phase III start, then there's still itemization, religious augments, and some Weapon SkillTree finalization (if I'm remembering that part correctly, not to mention I still really feel like the given list was missing a few weapons).

Then Cities, Metros, and related interactives, and finally Map Routing/full World Manager, I wouldn't envision a plan with a duration less than 72-84 weeks to get from Phase III start to 'Level 50 content with most/all classes and weapons'.

At which point I'd expect/hope for a wipe since I wouldn't risk trying to get First Time User Experience simulation from just Betas (but opening new FTUE test servers would be fine too).

But Jan 2026 is only like 36 weeks from Phase I start, so only 6 major version deployments...

Ludullu

Azherae wrote: »

I wouldn't envision a plan with a duration less than 72-84 weeks to get from Phase III start to 'Level 50 content with most/all classes and weapons'.

I mean, less than two years is a fairly optimistic take for A2's duration. I expect ~3 years, and even that is kinda optimistic of me.

Azherae wrote: »

At which point I'd expect/hope for a wipe since I wouldn't risk trying to get First Time User Experience simulation from just Betas (but opening new FTUE test servers would be fine too).

Intrepid could just say "we want you to start a new char and play the game like you would at release". Isn't that the whole point of trying to have "proper testers" in A2? People that would do what the devs are asking them to do.

And then betas can show the difference between those who've been testing the game for years and those who're truly starting it from 0. At which point Intrepid can rebalance some stuff, as is appropirate for a beta phase afaik.

Azherae wrote: »

But Jan 2026 is only like 36 weeks from Phase I start, so only 6 major version deployments...

I'm not sure I understand what you're mathing here.

Aszkalon

Nerror wrote: »

So when do you guys think A2 phase IV starts ?

C~oooouuuuuuuuuuuuld be exactly around June 20th of 2025.

Why ?
Because it looks like dear Intrepid wants to have every single "Phase" of the Alpha Two last for around a Quarter, now doesn't it ? With the Start from October probably be the only Exception,

because it got delayed into October. It just looks like this to me. 😐

Liniker

Pretty sure there is no Phase IV

Phase III is the last one, its gonna be up until launch and get updates

EDIT:

yup,

Nerror

Alright, so they just plan to keep adding content to phase III above and beyond what was on the slide. That works too of course.

Azherae

Nerror wrote: »

Alright, so they just plan to keep adding content to phase III above and beyond what was on the slide. That works too of course.

I'd say to remember who you're dealing with, and I don't mean that negatively really.

Intrepid is very careful with wording but that wording can sometimes be the type that is interpreted in incorrect ways if you take it too simply or read into it.

I'll just say that 'Phase III testing keys lasting until the game launches' is not equal to 'There are no phases past 3'. The other line about how long Phase III testing is going to last also doesn't equal 'Alpha itself is tentatively scheduled to end/transition at the end of Phase III in around Summer 2026'.

It barely even implies 'Beta will start in around Summer 2026'.

I am, however, thankful that he clarified that people who buy the new Keys still don't start testing Alpha-2 until at least two weeks after those with Alpha Two keys from elsewhere. That was gonna be rough if not clear before the sales opened.

Let's hope that part reaches a lot of people.

WHIT3ROS3

Phase 3 will last at least 24 months.

Nerror

Azherae wrote: »

Nerror wrote: »

Alright, so they just plan to keep adding content to phase III above and beyond what was on the slide. That works too of course.

I'd say to remember who you're dealing with, and I don't mean that negatively really.

Intrepid is very careful with wording but that wording can sometimes be the type that is interpreted in incorrect ways if you take it too simply or read into it.

I'll just say that 'Phase III testing keys lasting until the game launches' is not equal to 'There are no phases past 3'. The other line about how long Phase III testing is going to last also doesn't equal 'Alpha itself is tentatively scheduled to end/transition at the end of Phase III in around Summer 2026'.

It barely even implies 'Beta will start in around Summer 2026'.

That's true about the wording. We could still see phase 4 summer 2026 or later. I am under no illusion we'll get into beta at that point at least.

From Steven's other comments on Discord, it seems like they'll be doing a lot of outsourcing when it comes to assets in particular, and the overall timeline depends a lot on how well that goes.

Liniker

it cant get any more clear than this

Nerror

Yup yup, they keep updating their info.

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