Just another Release Day Estimate Thread!

akabear

So with the detailed roadmap, release day appears more narrowed down albeit a range and still an estimate.

So what is your revised estimate of the game's full release date?!

ItsNoGood

I stand by my 2028 Q1 prediction.

arkileo

Phase 3 is expected to last at least a year minimum, lets call it a year and a half. Assuming there's no phase 4, that puts the end of alpha in Q4 2026. Betas are meant to be "short" (as stated 6 years ago, so who knows.), so lets go with 1 month each, with a few months between, so maybe Beta 2 ends in Q2 2027. Then another quarter to fix whatever issues they find, then launch in Q3 2027?

Community predictions, no matter how memey, have tended to be very wrong, though. Like who thought we'd get alpha 2 in 2024? So let's go with Q1 2029.

Azherae

arkileo wrote: »

Phase 3 is expected to last at least a year minimum, lets call it a year and a half. Assuming there's no phase 4, that puts the end of alpha in Q4 2026. Betas are meant to be "short" (as stated 6 years ago, so who knows.), so lets go with 1 month each, with a few months between, so maybe Beta 2 ends in Q2 2027. Then another quarter to fix whatever issues they find, then launch in Q3 2027?

Community predictions, no matter how memey, have tended to be very wrong, though. Like who thought we'd get alpha 2 in 2024? So let's go with Q1 2029.

I'll put my money on Q1 2029 with arkileo, I think.

Otr

2 years counting from the true Alpha 2 start: May 2025 -> Q2 2027

Veeshan

ill be optimistic with Nov 2026
Phase 2 is when i feel A2 actualy starts and steven said atleast 12 months so ill double that for delays so we have 2 years from dec 2024 and move it forward a month since games tend to release a month or 2 before christmas

Hutchy1989

Veeshan wrote: »

ill be optimistic with Nov 2026
Phase 2 is when i feel A2 actualy starts and steven said atleast 12 months so ill double that for delays so we have 2 years from dec 2024 and move it forward a month since games tend to release a month or 2 before christmas

The quote is at least one year starting from phase three so your estimate should be 2 years from May 2025

Aszkalon

akabear wrote: »

So what is your revised estimate of the game's full release date?!

Maybe Middle to late 2026 to 2027. Comes all down to how much testing and Data-gathering will help Intrepid with programming the Game.

ItsNoGood wrote: »

I stand by my 2028 Q1 prediction.

If the Game continues to struggle like it apparently did all the last Years - then You might be very spot-on with your prediction. It could come out even later than that, too.

Jhoren

Late 2027 assuming they can get all their assets done in good time.

Nerror

I hope 2027, but yeah, sometime during 2028 is probably more realistic. Unless they have a bunch of world stuff finished they haven't shown us yet.

Raetion

Well, we got a little extra info from Steven's post on Reddit saying phase 3 will last for over a year.
I think this means we can start to expect Beta around the summer of 2026. So I am guessing the release to be in the first half of 2027.
Might be too optimistic though. It all depends on how many game-breaking bugs are found during the alpha

TheDarkSorcerer

We need to merge these threads. There's a new one every other week.

Dygz

Before 2030

Otr

Dygz wrote: »

Before 2030

Makes no sense. The game has to become profitable. Alpha 2 servers and a larger development team cannot be sustained without cosmetic shop and Steven said the cosmetic shop will not activate during Alpha 2 except for testing purpose.

Dygz

So... if Ashes releases before 2030, it won't be profitable...???

Otr

Dygz wrote: »

So... if Ashes releases before 2030, it won't be profitable...???

The upper limit is too far in the future. You have to take a bit more risk an chose a closer value.

BetrothedOfShadows

don't know when it'll release, but from what i've seen in the livestreams and gameplay videos so far, it's got far farrrr longer than the projected "1 year after alpha 2 phase 3 date". i'd say closer to 2.5 years after that at bare minimum. not trying to knock the creators' works, but the gameplay, performance, graphics, and well.......everything else is super rough looking right now. and the majority consensus from those who have played alpha 1 are that it's not great at all(i don't expect it to be, of course)

mmorpgs are one of the most daunting tasks a developer can take. i make morpgs (the massively part, i cannot do by myself~) and even those take a long time to hammer out even with a team.

so my semi-educated guess is mid to late 2028 to early 2029-ish.

Dalenor

Imho anything before late 2028 is way too optimistic:

• - we are going to experience most of the core loops for the first time in Alpha 2, they will all need several iterations before they're ready
• - only 5 out of the 18 biomes will be ready during phase 3 (so not even in May 2025)
• - we will have a first iteration on augments again during phase 3, this will be a nightmare to balance and get right
• - add to that unpredictable things that will delay the development (they always happen)

My most optimistic bet is Q2 2029.

Ace1234

There is 0% chance phase 3 only lasts a year. They have to roll out all of the remaining features that werent listed on phase 3, and then give time for deep testing and patches as more features are introduced, while also making iterations and gathering more feedback which will get more complex as more stuff is added. Doing these things acrossed all the systems while managing a large and explanding dev team is going to take at least 3 years from the start of phase 3 if we are lucky imo. Im not a dev though so I could be over estimating, but given the history I'd say 3-4 years for phase 3 and another year or two for betas, marketing, and a hand-picked release month, so probably like Q4 2029