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A Discussion of Geopolitics Surrounding the New Map
Xefjord
Member
Hi, I am Xefjord and studying Geopolitics and playing Strategy games is a pretty big hobby of mine. The recent developer update really highlighted a lot more of the nation/node building mechanics and the empires that could spawn from them, so I thought I would take a crack at looking at the pixelated new map to try to make some geographic conclusions as to where the best regions for empire building could be.
I know that Steven said that there won't be a single best node for creating empires, and I do agree with him. Geopolitics is a balance between Geography, Demographics, and Resources. The latter two factors we can't really predict yet. But that doesn't change the fact there will be some regions blessed to have less Geographic obstacles than others, and we can make guesstimations regarding the demography and resource density of certain regions based on their biomes, topography, and access to trade with the outside world through safe ocean paths and riverways.
I have created a map with my hypothesis on what will be the best regions in the world for Empire development, which ones will be challenging, and which ones will be incredibly difficult. I have also labeled the map with numbers so we can better discuss specific regions. I want this to be an open discussion where people can give their input so the Devs can see where the community thinks the best spots will be to settle, and also so maybe we can tweak the map a little for balancing. Feel free to ask me any questions regarding my Hypothesis down below and why I labeled certain regions the way I did.
Here is my hypothesis (old, but keeping for reference to older posts):
Here is my most recent hypothesis linked below factoring in demographic assumptions from starting zones:
I know that Steven said that there won't be a single best node for creating empires, and I do agree with him. Geopolitics is a balance between Geography, Demographics, and Resources. The latter two factors we can't really predict yet. But that doesn't change the fact there will be some regions blessed to have less Geographic obstacles than others, and we can make guesstimations regarding the demography and resource density of certain regions based on their biomes, topography, and access to trade with the outside world through safe ocean paths and riverways.
I have created a map with my hypothesis on what will be the best regions in the world for Empire development, which ones will be challenging, and which ones will be incredibly difficult. I have also labeled the map with numbers so we can better discuss specific regions. I want this to be an open discussion where people can give their input so the Devs can see where the community thinks the best spots will be to settle, and also so maybe we can tweak the map a little for balancing. Feel free to ask me any questions regarding my Hypothesis down below and why I labeled certain regions the way I did.
Here is my hypothesis (old, but keeping for reference to older posts):
Here is my most recent hypothesis linked below factoring in demographic assumptions from starting zones:
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Comments
For example, 15, 17, 20, & 21 (among others) are placed at the edges of the map. Wouldn't these be safer, and thus more favorable, since they would only have potential enemies coming from some directions, not all of them? Conversely, they would have that much less trade opportunities and wealth from trade, making them less desirable. I would expect that the interior locations, such as 16, 11, 26, 8 and 27 would be the most heavily settled, traded and prosperous areas of the map.
As an aside, if population tends to concentrate in the center of the map, we may well see the development of 3 or (more likely) 4 metros, rather than the maximum of 5, on many servers.
But overall, I would think that your lines/areas should focus less on biomes and more on natural barriers such as lakes and mountains.
The green areas are places I believe are innately stable and will rarely if ever be threatened outside of their own region. Their influence can be threatened, but their heartland pretty much never threatened. These are naturally destined for empires. From their base biomes they should have great resources, their location gives them high defensibility, and through rivers or geography the have great influence potential to vassalize the surrounding yellow regions.
The yellow areas are places that have the potential to be decently good in coalition with other states, or who will make powerful vassals of green states. Like I predict that neither 18 nor 17 could survive on their own on the above map, destined to become useful but powerful vassals to 16. However if 18 and 17 were to align together or play their cards right, they could maintain their independence and hamper 16's outside influence. In other instances Yellow can never survive independently, but can massively change the fate of its surrounding countries depending on who owns it, like 10's relationship with 8 or 26. Whichever of those two own 10 will dominate the other, but 10 is either parties game and vitally important.
The red areas are places that will be incredibly difficult to empire build out of, either being totally incapable of maintaining independence (like 10, 2, 3, 6, or 21) or just never being able to power project outside of their region (like 11, 27, or 22) This falls down to a variety of factors like being too small and inhospitable, to being entirely surrounded by powerful neighbors with powerful bargaining chips over their development. like how 23 completely controls the only major waterway leading in and out of 27.
The pink area in 5 was completely water in the original map, but for whatever reason the devs filled that in, and it is incredibly disappointing. Because it went from being what I would consider almost a remarkably green area that could counteract the ungodly potential of 16, to now being a rump having to battle for control with 4, 8, and 7. 16 or 7 could easily fund any of its neighbors to keep it a rump state and much of its trading potential is now gone. It overall damages the value of the whole northern side of Vandagar entirely and I would humbly ask that the bay be opened again. There is only two solidly green areas on the eastern map, but they directly fight for control and counteract each other. Meanwhile in the new map, there is only 7 and 16 as solid green areas, but they really don't step on each others toes much and hardly have to interact at all. Which isn't as fun imo. Opening the pink area would allow 5 to be solidly green again and to create incredibly 3 way conflict potential between 7, 5, and 16 in ways that they can reasonably threaten each other.
All good questions! I actually don't base primarily on Biome but more on topographical regions, that is why the Jundark is split between two sections 15 and 17, where the split is right on a river that divides the two 7, 6, 12, 13, and 14 are all the same biome, but I have split them all accordingly by topography. The biomes do have some impact though, as while 1, 9, and 30 are all isolated islands, 1 and 30 have biomes that make them just kind of worse than 9. I am also looking at expansion potential, and 9 has the capability to expand to 20 somewhat easily (and vice versa). Especially if 20 becomes a natural trading hub for valuable materials found in 21 that may make their way to the western continent by the path of (21 > 20 > 9 > 3 > 8)
To address the specifics of 15, 17, 20, and 21.
17 has a mountain pass that leads directly from 16, and would be highly under threat from any kind of naval harassment from 16 and 18 if they were working together. The best navigable rivers seem to all be on the western side of 17, right next to the vulnerable mountain pass, and that is the most likely place to set up camp if a successful city were to develop there, setting up on the eastern side of 17 would only work if 16 was navally incompetent and 18 was potentially on their side. There IS potential for 17, but they are operating at a strong geographical disadvantage, which is why I labeled them yellow instead of green or red.
15 is large, but scattered with rivers and isolated. It could potentially be a decent independent state of its own, but it could never influence much outside of its region. Because it would be much easier for a powerful 16 to take its eastern neighbor 17, and much easier for a powerful 7 to potentially take its northern neighbor 14. 19 has steep mountains on the Jundark side, but easy openings on the 16 riverlands side, so I think that is darn near guaranteed to go to 16. I think the region has potential if it were to somehow conquer 17 and 14, but it would be so long and snakey alongside the outside edge with its border regions against VERY powerful stable states, unless it had a substantial demographic advantage, I think it would be way too easy to divide and conquer this state.
20 I can't guarantee the type of biome, but it looks quite bleh to live in at least from the art. I think it has potential as an incredible trading post for what I believe will be a very end game resource dense 21, and its isolation does keep it protected from powerful threats, but I think this region may be a bit rough, as piratery will be easiest along the north side of the world, and there may be barbarian raids from the folks that do decide to settle in 22. I don't think it will get colonized necessarily, but it has low growth potential and a lot of annoying small threats. Its most successful outcome is conquering 9 and 21. But 9 might be hard to conquer given its biome makes it appear it has more resources and it will probably be popular for either islanders or pirate players, and 21 could easily be contested by a powerful 24 that would curb stomp them if something valuable appeared in 21 they wanted more.
21 is literally a volcano. I don't see an empire building up out of this region well at all. Especially since it will be a battleground between 24 (and its likely Vassal 23) and 20. It will likely be a high level zone with very powerful threats. but isolated from any good heartlands of resources. Meaning it essentially be doomed to be a colony of a mercantile 20 or an expansionist 24. It will be lucky if it can keep its independence, but it will not be colonizing anyone else.
Finally Demographics do matter, and I think the starter zone areas will likely be artificially more powerful to begin with. But as time goes on, I think the better resources and Geography won't necessarily be in the starter zones, and cities that can better facilitate trade and protect their trade will end up becoming dominant. None of my color coded regions are meant to signify that those places are destined for greatness, but simply that some places will face more challenges/obstacles than others to succeed.
If you opened the bay like the old map, you could trade safely through the north navally via 7 > 13 > 12 > 5 > 8 then go either 8 > 3 > 9 > 20, 8 > 10 > 22 > 20, or 8 > 10 > 26 > 28. All would have been valid and relatively safe northern routes that encourage the substantial development and Empire building in both 5 and 8, and would have commercial benefits to 7.
But in the new map, you will have to upend your boat if you want to go through 5, and pass through a politically weaker Region 5 that may be in conflict with regions 4 and 8 for power since it won't be able to survive nearly as well on its own. It just isn't a route worth taking. Leaving the other naval option being 7 > 6 > 4 > 2 > along the northern coast to your destination. Which without a powerful northern state, will be a suicide trip because as I said, this place will probably be rampant with piracy.
I don't know if it was the devs intention to make the northern seas a hellscape devoid of any empire building, but Northern Vandagar could end up being total war completely incapable of safe passage for trade because of nation states duking it out, the northern islands all filled with pirates, and Northern Elyrium could easily end up filled with Barbarians from 22 and more pirates.
This is my current hypothesis on most likely naval trade routes with the current map.
Edit: I also predict this is likely where mega guilds will seek to influence the most on their respective servers, assuming there is a castle in/nearby this region
I think the starting zones will matter, especially early on, and none of these predictions are destiny, demographics and resources make a huge difference as well. But they will face variable long term challenges that will favor these Geographies in the long term without other external factors like resources.
I factored in the fact that 16 not only has the strongest geography in waterway traversal, trade potential, steep walls along its north and west, colonization potential in 17 and 18, and that it will likely be the Human starter zone bolstering its demographics pretty consistently. I think that 24 is expected to be like the Elven starter zone, lending it to also have good demographics alongside its safety as a peninsula, easy colonization opportunity in 23 and 25, as well as good trade potential with 27 through its navigable river and 28 by sea.
7 and 28 won't have starter zones I am fairly certain, but will have massive appeal. 7 literally looks like Great Britain and has massive colonization potential while also being quite safe. Leading anyone wanting to live on a successful island that colonizes others to go for 7. It will be a stable independent country, and will only grow from there. 28 is to my knowledge, the Asian biome, meaning it will attract weebs in masses regardless of starting zone and paired with its good geography and colonization potential should become demographically popular just by nature of its Asian appeal.
Edit: I also think Castle location will matter, but we don't know where those will be yet.
Depends on the spread of Node Types...and which Node Types the server population chooses to progress to Metro. How stable the Metros are.
Which races are the dominant races for each Metro.
How efficient and stable the Monarchs are....
etc..
30 encircled regions on the map out of 85 Nodes???
is this basing it off of like a real life idea on how things would get built if people were to live in here? Is pretty interesting to think about though
from a game perspective i think that the area like 11 and 26 would likely be places where people would want to own without factoring in resources and whatnot just by being coastal places that have easy access to quickly go to the other big land mass
Remember that open sea is now an active PvP zone (although Caravans were always in danger). Safest routes generally involve hugging the coasts of friendly nodes as much as possible, and it would be safer to pass through 8>10>26 than a straight shot from 11 to 26. Add on top of this, that a major power would have to maintain infrastructure in 11 and 26 to keep it a safe trading hub (on land) and it becomes harder to imagine how these could make good ports or settlements. The goods even if they make it across sea, still have to make it across land from there.
I tried to cross examine the old map and the new map and make a complete list of navigable rivers. Some stayed the same, but some disappeared. And some areas are too hard to tell. I will say at least from what I have examined, the eastern continent got absolutely shafted on navigable rivers. And that is actually a pretty scary predicament geopolitically speaking, but here is my map so you can see for yourself, with the rivers and starting areas highlighted.
Navigable rivers are INCREDIBLY geopolitically important. Many prominent geopolitical analysts can tie almost every majorly successful civilization to a large amount of Navigable rivers. (USA to the Mississippi river basin, China to the Yangtze and Yellow Rivers, Germany to the Rhine). It is more than just food production (although that definitely helps) it creates the ability to transport goods in mass both cheaply and in bulk more efficiently. And that seems like it will remain true in this game as well, with boats having the highest carry capacity. Both in getting food/resources from the homesteads and bringing them down river to actual population centers faster, cheaper, and safer than by caravan. This will balance things substantially in the western continents favor if there is as few waterways as I seem to be identifying in the eastern continent
As lovely as this is, I would cautiously post these theories simply because they can lead to a hive mind set where everyone gets identical plans and then your servers have far less variety due to establishing "metas" ahead of time.
There will always be people striving for a meta.
Doesn't mean those metas are legit or at al meaningful.
No worries, the map is large enough and the yellow areas are all swing zones that can change the balance of power. I would be more worried if it was all red and green, but the amount of yellow is generally a good thing. Although in the case of 5 on the map, while it would make another green zone (a seemingly MUST settle) it is more so a necessity in my mind for balance of free trade across the north. And I do think there should be capability for a great power in the north otherwise it is highly susceptible to piracy. Having a third power on the western continent would also offset the power of the other two quite strong green areas. Whereas the two green areas on the eastern continent already balance each other. Although much of the central areas are deadlands because of the lack of navigable rivers.
There are also going to be nodes in the underrealm, so there very well could be a green zone there.
As with all Geopolitics, the world is constantly changing and you update your hypothesis based upon new information and events
I love it! XD
These are not set in stone, and the orcs are a total guesstimation based upon the end biomes for both Orc races in the old map (But they could start north for all we know, although I think it is unlikely given the Orcs have a more Asian/Mesoamerican bent and so the Asian biome would make more sense as a start) This will actually make the Asian biome even more of a powerhouse since it will be a potential starting zone with good demographics on top of its already decent geography. Its hard to tell and the old map gives no reference, but I may have identified 3 possible rivers I didn't feel confident including in the map as well, so I just put ? at the mouths of those potential rivers. Will have to wait for the high quality version.
This doesn't radically change the map, but one factor I feel like I greatly underappreciated was the dwarves starting zone, which is very likely to remain the same from the old map to the new map (Very little has changed about the Dwarven areas at all, and while its hard to see in the new map. The old map made quite clear that the Dwarven starting area actually has some good rivers Second best actually outside of the Riverlands biome. This definitely on top of the demographic advantage, as well as how they lame ducked region 5 by the plugging of the bay I think tips Region 4 towards green.
There is pros and cons to this. For one, this raises the chances of the Duzenkell mountains having a greater power occupying them and being able to moderate piracy a bit more along the northern coast of Vandagar. The northern seas will still be a largely perilous journey however filled with pirates and other dangers, as none of the northern regions really seem poised for strong governorship. They all seem kind of lifeless and rough.
I still advocate they unplug the bay (now lakes) of region 5, because it really serves as a barrier that prevents and free trade through that region that could develop it into something nice. Right now it could easily get dominated by excess folks from the Dwarven start, but it wouldn't really provide a whole lot of mercantile value with the outside world beyond being a guaranteed vassal to region 4. Unplugging the bay will make it a dynamic region that allows Region 4 to more seriously interact with both the human start in the riverlands (16) as well as the likely island power that develops out of region 7.
I think now 7 and 4 now serve to be bigger enemies and 6 a strategically valuable conflict zone. However while I did think some conflict between 7 and 4 would be interesting and necessary. They are not really the powers that need nerfed. Its 16 that is the most scary on the Vandagar continent, and remains untouchable by both 7 and 4. Opening the bay will allow the northern vandagarians to get a lot more strategic value and independence through controlling 5 and 8. Giving them safer passage into the middle sea independent of pirates to the north and potentially hostile states (16 and its vassals of 17 and 18 to the south).
Here is a new map I made based upon my updated analysis:
1. The original map seemed to have a lot of very good riverways, but the new map, at least from what I can discern, seems to be lacking good water ways in a lot of the new edited places. Add on top of this, there is a surprising lack of multi-regional waterways. I can identify really only 3 of any strategic importance: the waterway of 18 into 16 (The best multi regional waterway it appears), the waterway of 23 to 27 (the second best, it looks like it doesn't actually connect to the lake at 27 though, which if true is a massive bruh moment and should be changed), and the waterway from 5 into 8. The 5 into 8 water is mega sad because of the now closed bay and the fact that the waterway into 8 doesn't even connect to the ocean (which it totally should)
Having deeper waterways that connect regions would both improve the world, commerce and geopolitics, as well as encourage the devs goal of getting more naval play. If I were to make a couple suggestions to enhance some red zones. It would be be to add the riverways I highlight in purple in this image below:
Opening the bay in 5 and extending the river through 8 into the ocean would make it a very valuable and powerful point geopolitically and commercially speaking. 27 would have some use and potential for empire building if a river extended through 26 into the lake at 27 and that lake connected to the river for 23. Which would actually give it huge value as a crossroads in the center of Elyrium while also not letting it get totally destroyed economically if 23's river were blockaded.
2. To be blunt, Peligora looks poorly designed. Both in an artistic sense and a geopolitical sense. All the other islands look dense and interesting, but Peligora literally looks like an amateur's quick D&D reference for some far off island that has one interesting thing on it, then you never return ever again and quite frankly ignore its existence. It will likely look better potentially when 3d modeled, but at least on the map, it looks kind of bad when compared to how beautiful 29, 10, 7, 9 and 1 look.
The island of Sujoma doesn't look perfect either, completely devoid of any rivers, but it does make a good Greenland in comparison to 9's Iceland, and rivers would be inconsequential in that cold of a climate anyway. So it doesn't matter. My only beef is with Peligora which I am sure will get overhauled in-game, I would just be happy if it gets gentrified a bit on the actual world map before the high definition copy comes out :x
https://ashesofcreation.wiki/images/2/25/Map_of_Verra.jpg
I think the fascinating part will be seeing how many of the servers have the various races choosing to start at their ancestral portal and how many choose to start far away from their ancestral homes.
This is also a fascinating possibility to me as well. There is a lot of decisions I will be excited to observe, and I think while the initial month will be quite racially diverse all over as everyone picks just the biome they like the most, when nodes with racial developments get established, I think you will see players resort themselves according to those.
Say 30% of orcs are outnumbered by 40% of humans and 30% elves in the Asian biome (Their hypothesized start), then the nodes there will just be Human culture/architecture, and if an Orc node crops up in the Taiga and an Elf node in the Swamp, then I think the Orcs and Elves will migrate to those nodes respectively and prop up the node of their own race.
The architecture and NPC popultion reflects the race that contributes the most xp towards the next Stage.
So... that Py'Rai Town could suddenly become a Dünir City. Then we would have to see which race rallies to get the Metro. Or maybe the Py'Rai decide it's better for them to Siege the City and try again from scratch to build a Py'Rai City there.
The Tulnar might also be trying for a Metro above ground.
Seems like there would be Hell to pay if a Kaelar Village became a Tulnar Town.
"It is a video game idiot! Siege weapons move the same on grass, snow, sand, dirt and can pop out from no where in a minute"
More seriously, I am missing too much informations and numbers to be sure.
What we know from the 26th of august:
World is flat ! (1:00:00) Always good to know from naval perspective
Ressources won't be an issue even in a desert or an island ! (1:31:00)
With that in mind, I will start from an island and get a strong naval fleets as quick as possible then go continental and wish my political and diplomacy skills are good enough to raise an Empire.
Luckily, I am a free wanderer, world is my home and the battlefield my playground.
Unless there is Sylvanas and the forsaken
Also hope, there are Race capitals where we can see their finest architectures, meet their heroes/champions and charismatic leaders. Maybe even summon one of their champions to help smallest guild.
The ancient cities are all ruins.
But... yes!
As far as I know there is no current Divine Gate on islands, so you'll either have to swim there, or wait until you have money for a water mount or a ship.
And we need to find out if the islands do have a Node on them or not. It's not been confirmed.
The longer and therefore riskier naval journey to the far sides of each continent make me a little skeptical that we'll see metropolises there without some unique draw to those coasts.
There do be sea monsters too. So swimming might be harder than one would expect
Have you considered roping a few sea turtles together?
I think those mountains look too interesting to pass up exploring. By the time I get back, I’m expecting you guys to have some serious infrastructure build out.
You don't seem to put much stake in any of the island nations except 7. If I am going to compare the world of Verra to the real world - which probably is foolish - Sujoma could be compared to the British or Portuguese empire. I could see a lot of trade flow through the Sujoma channel from northern Elyrium and northern Vandagar. But in your map, you seem to have disregarded it completely.
If you look at any marine traffic map then you can see a lot of activity in channels and straits(eg English channel or straits of Gibraltar) which could mean profit for adjacent nations.
I realize it's a bit too early to discuss this but it is still fun to theorycraft. I'd love to hear your take on this @Xefjord.