SEVERS: Their size, Player Retention, Merging, Expectations & lastly Initial Peak vs Reality

I am curious to know what is AoC current stance in 2024 on their expected #. What is their current belief their PEAK numbers will be and what will be the number that will settle down in reality.

With that said then we need to discuss and look at their server size (capacity).

We know each server will host 8-10k CONCURRENT players with a base of 50k registered player per server.

Bit of reality checks - as of today on https://steamdb.info/charts/?sort=peak

If we were to look at all the games that ever came out and sort through their HIGHEST - ALL TIME PEAK and compare it to their 24h recent peak and Current - of the first 100 games

Only 18 games has maintained over 20% of their player base in the past 24 hours.
Of those 18 games, 14 of them maintained 33% of their player base.
Of those 14 games, only 6 games maintained 50% of their player base.
And only 1 game has maintained over 75% of their player base (Counter-Strike2).

Majority of the top 100 "all-time peak" games has kept below 10% of their player base.

If we were to apply this logic, we are signing up 50k player per server with an expectation of 10k concurrent, we are looking at maintaining 20% of the player base per server. Where 10% would be 5k concurrent players which is WHAT I EXPECT the reality of our servers being.

Is AoC prepared and is their game world, economy, nodes at a place where it is functional with the potential of having a server world hovering around 4-5k concurrent players?

Also is the community and AoC prepared for the perception "backlash"??? Meaning it's gonna get huge numbers followed by a huge loss of players and that perception WILL hurt our game in that sense.

Look at Palworld, New World, Enshrouded, Valheim, Hellsdiver, for fuck sakes BAULDER GATE 3, they All open up with much fanfare and much success & Hype (let's put a asterisk on New World but i'll digress) only to lose 80-95% of their initial player base.

THIS IS THE NORM and the reality of gaming nowadays. if you look at the top 18 or top 6 games I was mentioning above; they are: dated games, FPS & MOBA games.

Should we be aiming for 50k signee with 8-10k concurrent?
How many servers do we want?
What is the minimal baseline # the world of Verra is functional to the core mechanics of the world for being "successful" and "meaningful progression" to the server & it's players?

I know about this: https://ashesofcreation.wiki/Servers but it's time to get a more updated info.

Lots of games have came out since then & most of these info from the wiki are coming from 2017-2021. In the span of 3 years, lots of games came out & has shown a trend. A trend that shows things didnt dip/drop nor were many game had a fluke of bad luck or that was attributed to bad decision, design, direction. Outside of New World, most of the games were all regarded as great games, well received games. Hell one of them was Game of the year.

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Comments

Depraved

novercalis wrote: »

I dont hate that idea - server launches 2am PST and on a Monday.

working adults, family men aint gonna bother ruining their sleep schedule to game.

you are severely underestimating some of us

akabear

I wonder if the nodal system will encourage the majority of the population to work towards activity centralization and hence, when populations dwindle, certain/primary nodes will remain active and not create the emptiness that some other games do when the players are too dispersed.

Azherae

Yeah basically what novercalis said, but even more controlled, is what I meant by 'front-loading' the issue.

Sure, launch your first/first two NA-West server(s) at 2 AM PST.

Make it so people have one character slot for the first week or two.

Make it so you can't create a character on another server as long as you have that one.

Launch next two NA-West servers at like 9 AM PST. Make these the new 'default' for people who don't read stuff and just press through. They'll def have lower queues. Just keep 'dodging' the bulk playerbase for the timezone for a bit. Then when they fill up and the queues get bad, split the servers, but like, a hard split. You have two days to confirm which you want to split to, and you only get the choice based on the server your main is currently on (you have the chance to delete your main once the split option appears, so you can just jump to an entirely new server).

If you miss the split option due to IRL stuff, friends or guildies on server can get you a pass. Maybe even restrict those a bit. Can't get a pass? No prob, you have friends, delete your char and make a new one on the new server, you have permission since you had the split 'offer'. If you don't mind paying the cost of restarting at the beginning of an MMORPG, no problem.

Convoluted and frustrating? Obviously moreso than a free-for-all. But the result would be forgotten for most people within a month. And the whole 'first server to open is always the big one' goes away because that first one split into two, or maybe even four, over time.

Similarly, it's much much easier for Ashes to 'diverge a timeline', both in terms of their Server History whatever, and in terms of Nodes, than it is for them to merge two. Server E and F just get 'start a day with half as many people in them'. This also gives Intrepid time to smooth out some random economy stuff, dupes, banning early bots jumping in to establish themselves as legit players before changing to bot mode, etc.

Dodge, split, hope.

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