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probability of getting a key

ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
in Ashes Of Creation General Discussion
I'm wondering how small the chances are at getting a key in the weekly raffle for simply having an account.
Like, could you tell us how many people have signed up and are eligible for each week's raffle with a percent telling our chances?
Is there a way we could find out the probability?
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Comments

  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Well, figure 140,000 accounts. 5-6 keys a week. Figure 20 weeks (Nov). Work out all that math and you have your answer. Probably somewhere along the lines of getting struck by lightning while doing a line of coke off of Rhianna's ass.
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Aren't there like over 200000 accounts? so your chances will be 1 in that amount. 
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    edited June 2017
    On 06/06/2017 Steven said there are over 140.000 registered accounts on the website. I believe it would be over 150.000 by now. Now that the drawings were random 3 weeks in a row it's safe to say that 6 keys a week will be given out to that 150k members.

    Your chance of getting one is 0,004%.
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    AeonAuron said:
    On 06/06/2017 Steven said there are over 140.000 registered accounts on the website. I believe it would be over 150.000 by now. Now that the drawings were random 3 weeks in a row it's safe to say that 6 keys a week will be given out to that 150k members.

    Your chance of getting one is 0,004%.
    :(
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Your chance is 0.004%, but so is everyone else. So it's fair :)
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Deyarn said:
    Your chance is 0.004%, but so is everyone else. So it's fair :)
    0.004% per account you have. So... fairness would require the assumption that everyone only had 1 Ashes account.  :#

    I'm personally quite okay with waiting till next year for my alpha fix. Heh heh heh. I won't complain if I get one but it's not something I'm actively trying to acquire. 


  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    The alpha for the keys is most likely going to be just a weekend or week long event later on this year. Those with keys will be able to get in on that. Still trying to get clarification on whether those with Braver and above will be able to get in on that since "earliest access" to AOC was the tagline used in the KS. The closed alpha phase 1 will not be accessible to those with keys won in forum giveaways according to Shunex.
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    0.004... 

    Anyone know where the bribes go? :"D 
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    edited June 2017
    UnknownSystemError said:
    The alpha for the keys is most likely going to be just a weekend or week long event later on this year. Those with keys will be able to get in on that. Still trying to get clarification on whether those with Braver and above will be able to get in on that since "earliest access" to AOC was the tagline used in the KS. The closed alpha phase 1 will not be accessible to those with keys won in forum giveaways according to Shunex.

    Braver and above have access to the alpha in 2018. Think it has been mentioned a few livestreams that there won't be any buy-in to the friends and family Alpha. :)

    http://www.mmorpg.com/gameon.cfm/cast/130 at about 52:10 mark.

  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    AutumnWillow said:

    Braver and above have access to the alpha in 2018. Think it has been mentioned a few livestreams that there won't be any buy-in to the friends and family Alpha. :)
    Yep, I get all that. My comment was more on the kerfuffle they had around June 6th with people screaming "Sue, sue, sue!!" because letting people into the game before those who backed Braver or higher on KS was a violation of the tagline of "earliest access to ashes" they put out. I personally don't care either way. The friends and family thing will be a nice teaser to keep the hype going. I will wait till whenever they actually have much more done for me to break in alpha 1.
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    UnknownSystemError said:
    Well, figure 140,000 accounts. 5-6 keys a week. Figure 20 weeks (Nov). Work out all that math and you have your answer. Probably somewhere along the lines of getting struck by lightning while doing a line of coke off of Rhianna's ass.
      
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Keys from the raffles are estimated for Q4 2017, the Friends and Family is a separate testing phase that will likely begin with several occurrences between Oct-Nov of 2017, the raffled alphas do not apply to the KS alpha periods in 2018
    source: Steven on the ashes of creation discord 
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
                       *starts  looking under rocks for the hidden key to the door.*
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Interestingly enough, the odds of winning an Alpha key are just slightly worse than the odds of being killed by an asteroid or a comet in the United States.  Maybe I'll wear a hard hat during the next meteor storm.
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Stupid popularity of this game + stupid poularity of the forums =  stupidly small chance of Alpha key.  Ho hum just another 1st world problem I will have to learn to live with lol
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    nagash said:
    Is Her Majesty your lucky charm?
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    PJ_Rydecker said:
    Stupid popularity of this game + stupid poularity of the forums =  stupidly small chance of Alpha key.  Ho hum just another 1st world problem I will have to learn to live with lol
    Plus,  registering an account is free. Hehe. 
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Possum said:
    nagash said:
    Is Her Majesty your lucky charm?
    I don't really want a key as I already have a backer key but it never hurts to have some back up ^^
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Aye good luck to those who want/need a key I'm good with my package like Mr. skelebones here.
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    I dunno, i have no faith in the key give aways.. I was among the first 1000 people to register back around christmas.. I can remember when there was 400 people in discord.. If i didn't win back when i better chances.. I have no hope now.. :(   which totally sucks..
    The few people who actually take time to find these games and spread the hype EARLY should be rewarded.  But ehh at the end of the day ill get over it and be happy to play a more polished game in the future.. Good luck to all the people who think they actually have a chance lol :expressionless:
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    @nagash @Bannith , if you were to win another key, could I has it? :wink: <3

    Afbeeldingsresultaat voor gollum gif
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Chances are better than being struck by lightening but worse than catching an STD at the in-game, Monty Python style brothel.
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    I want a key.  I like this one. If I get it will it let me into Ashes?  
    Image result for phoenix key
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Quinlan1998 said:
    @nagash @Bannith , if you were to win another key, could I has it? :wink: <3

    Afbeeldingsresultaat voor gollum gif
    I have never won a key
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    nagash said:
    Quinlan1998 said:
    @nagash @Bannith , if you were to win another key, could I has it? :wink: <3
    I have never won a key
    Haha, okay smarty-pants, but you got what I meant :tongue:
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Hi how will we know if we get an Alpha key?
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    Sorazx13 said:
    Hi how will we know if we get an Alpha key?
    You get notified or look on the forums, they post the winners
  • ArchivedUserArchivedUser Guest
    I'd like to win a alpha key that way I could play in alpha and beta. I got closed beta from the store. Chances are slim though. Just have to wait for closed beta. Think it will be worth the wait.
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