Guess Game: Release Schedule

JeanPhilippeGunghar

Hello,
there's goes my guess:

We know that Alpha-1 will be from early April to early May
My guess for Alpha-2 is at fall this year, early 2022 at later
Beta-1 could be in late spring 2022
Beta-2 could from early to mid summer
My guess for release would be Fall 2022 to winter 2022-2023 at later

BigPapa1

Fall 2022 is completely utopic in my opinion, although it depends on what compromises they are willing to make to release early. MMO betas are not like betas in most other games, there's so many variables that only come in play when you have massive amounts of players that they won't be able to see certain issues until they have a sizeable player count. As such, whenever the beta comes out, expect the game to take close to a full year until it's done, minimum, assuming that Intrepid is willing to iron out all the major issues prelaunch. I personally expect the game to come out in late 2023 or even sometime in 2024. Anything earlier than that would surprise me a lot.

Talents

If I had to give you my opinion, it'd be something like this.

Alpha 1: April 2021 - November 2021 (We know that May isn't when Alpha 1 ends, that's just the current public roadmap. They've said that there'll almost certainly be more tests after May)

Alpha 2: January/February 2022 - December 2022

Beta 1: February 2023 - March 2023

Beta 2: April 2023 - May 2023

Release: June/July 2023

BigPapa wrote: »

Fall 2022 is completely utopic in my opinion, although it depends on what compromises they are willing to make to release early. MMO betas are not like betas in most other games, there's so many variables that only come in play when you have massive amounts of players that they won't be able to see certain issues until they have a sizeable player count. As such, whenever the beta comes out, expect the game to take close to a full year until it's done, minimum, assuming that Intrepid is willing to iron out all the major issues prelaunch. I personally expect the game to come out in late 2023 or even sometime in 2024. Anything earlier than that would surprise me a lot.

They've already confirmed that by the time Ashes enters Beta, the game will be pretty much done. Beta is just for last minute bug fixes/marketing.

https://ashesofcreation.wiki/Release_schedule#Beta_testing

The game should be pretty much done (at beta stage) and final polish and stuff like that being put in. We don't want people to get totally burnt out on the game before we actually release. So once we get to the beta phases it should be short and sweet.[71] – Jeffrey Bard

Ashburn

Full release - Summer 2025

Cold 0ne FTB

Alpha 2 Fall 2021/Winter 2022
Beta 1 Late Spring/Early Summer 2022
Beta 2 Late Fall 2022
Full Release Early Summer 2023

That's assuming Covid dies down and other dilemmas or sources of delays don't occur. This is also pretty ambitious. Keep in mind we haven't seen any naval content and we have a very small fraction of the total class system. That's assuming they don't need to do any massive overhauls or reworks to the engine or base code.

Realistically this game is 2-4 years out.

Jamation

I think Alpha 2 will be in the last few months of 2021

But I don't think we'll see the rest of the game since the robots will takeover in 2022

Samson1

If the game is released as late as 2025... Hopefully they take the time to migrate from UE4 to UE5.

mrwaffles

"An MMO is never late, it arrives precisely when it means to"

Tarkl

Is it so crazy to see it by the end of 2021 early 2022? ,although seeing the route they want to follow, starting from February there will not be much time between one test and another (if even being tests) but still reading deeper of the route, they want the alpha 2 to be persistent, assuming that it takes 2-3 months from alpha 1
and they want the betas to be something fast and short-lived.
but really if it lasted 1year in alfa2 keeping the servers always open, it would be like shooting yourself in the foot, because people burned it in that year, almost certainly.

maybe it’s crazy and it’s my hope that it won’t take long

TheAccursedRat

JeanPhilippeQC wrote: »

Beta-1 could be in late spring 2022

My dumb brain was like, "oh god, that's like four years from now..."
Now that my brain's actually realized how years work, I think that seems semi-realistic :P

Shootersa

Release - Winter 2022

Asgermon

Alpha 2 start late Fall - Winter 2021 (If alpha 2 is persistent it maybe is very long and the bethas are short)
Betha 1 start maybe late Fall - Winter 2022
Betha 2 start maybe late Spring - Summer 2023
Release maybe Fall - Winter 2023

BigPapa1

Samson wrote: »

If the game is released as late as 2025... Hopefully they take the time to migrate from UE4 to UE5.

I am assuming at this point their codebase has so many changes from base UE4 that merging it with the all the changes in UE5 would be a complete nightmare. But yes if it comes out that late, it would be nice to be ported to UE5, however I'm not expecting it.

JeanPhilippeGunghar

I tried to be a bit optimist with a release in later winter 2022-2023.

ItsNoGood

B1 2027 Q1
B2 2027 Q4
Release 2028 Q1

Chicago

this did not age well

Veeshan

Chicago wrote: »

this did not age well

i was thinking the same thing

Lamperoug

Oh crap.. It seems I need to push back the release date by a couple of years... Hoping for the first half of 2025.

Laetitian

Chicago wrote: »

this did not age well

It aged fine, people are just dumb, and only have a lip-service understanding of open development.

Just thinking about the depth of the node system makes it immediately apparent that you have to take whatever the average fan considers a "conservative" estimate of the time of development until open beta, and multiply it by 3.

And most people are probably aware of that, but they internally reframe their impatience as "optimism" in order to legitimise it.
Or in the words of our social media overlords: "Copium."

Lamperoug

Laetitian wrote: »

Chicago wrote: »

this did not age well

It aged fine, people are just dumb, and only have a lip-service understanding of open development.

Just thinking about the depth of the node system makes it immediately apparent that you have to take whatever the average fan considers a "conservative" estimate of the time of development until open beta, and multiply it by 3.

And most people are probably aware of that, but they internally reframe their impatience as "optimism" in order to legitimise it.
Or in the words of our social media overlords: "Copium."

Reality is too harsh to not hope for a miracle.

TheDarkSorcerer

I would say Q3/Q4 of 2025 or Q1 of 2026 with official launch of game.

Laetitian

Lamperoug wrote: »

Laetitian wrote: »

Chicago wrote: »

this did not age well

It aged fine, people are just dumb, and only have a lip-service understanding of open development.

Just thinking about the depth of the node system makes it immediately apparent that you have to take whatever the average fan considers a "conservative" estimate of the time of development until open beta, and multiply it by 3.

And most people are probably aware of that, but they internally reframe their impatience as "optimism" in order to legitimise it.
Or in the words of our social media overlords: "Copium."

Reality is too harsh to not hope for a miracle.

Make your own miracles until reality catches up.

Dygz

Laetitian wrote: »

It aged fine, people are just dumb, and only have a lip-service understanding of open development.

Just thinking about the depth of the node system makes it immediately apparent that you have to take whatever the average fan considers a "conservative" estimate of the time of development until open beta, and multiply it by 3.

And most people are probably aware of that, but they internally reframe their impatience as "optimism" in order to legitimise it.
Or in the words of our social media overlords: "Copium."

Estimates were based on Steven vehemently stating release "Before 2020"... and then expecting he would be trying to stay somewhat close to that missed date.
Even with Alpha 1 dropping in 2021 - no one could have expected a 3 year gap between Alpha 1 and Alpha 2.
Based on Steven's hype.