Noaani wrote: » It's funny, the reason Steven made this game is because he looked at Archeage and thought to himself "this game could have been so much more" - which is exactly how many people are already looking at Ashes.
Vhaeyne wrote: » Noaani The siege timing issue is a valid concern, but it’s one that has been addressed in other games. There are several known solutions that Intrepid can draw inspiration from, along with Ashes-specific solutions yet to be discovered.
Vhaeyne wrote: » As for the 1,500 players per server point, I have to disagree.
Laetitian wrote: » You did the maths so dirty, I'll have to go shower after this. Your statistics are disregarding overlap between the categories. For every group that's heavily encompassed by another (and thus creates a disproportionate relationship between the percentage the categories represent within each other compared to what they represent of the entire world) you'd have to nearly disregard those overlapping factors in your calculations, because those people are already nearly encompassed by the previous factor. That's especially crucial in the 0.1 and 0.2 factor, at least the higher of which might be nearly eliminated by this overlap. That's nearly an extra 400% on top of your result just from this one cleanup, and if the same applies to several of the other factors to varying degrees (keep in mind this cleanup applies multiplicatively just like the factors in your original calculation), that might be the difference between 100k players and 10 million players.
MMORPGs account for 3% of the total number of gamers
Laetitian wrote: » Part of which is because WoW has tainted the public image of the market and not allowed it to grow into something other than its stereotype. You can't exclude the possibility that another percent or two might simply open up for a new successful game with a different hype and deeper game mechanics. Ashes might not deliver on that, but it shouldn't lead you to forget about the possibility, because otherwise there's no point in ever trying anything new, and you could just go play WoW or forget about the genre.
AirborneBerserker wrote: » Noaani Unfortunately this game doesn't have the luxury of having almost no competition. It has mountains of competition that's the problem. There are loads of Fantasy games out there for people to choose from. At 36 months I'll be surprised if this game has 3,000 players, let alone 30,000. That's being the result of two things having lots of competition and so many systems that reward toxic behaviors of the worst possible kind.
Vhaeyne wrote: » AirborneBerserker wrote: » Except we aren't talking about ducks were talking about Steven, and your inability to accept that he is a human being and is just as fallible as anyone one else. "We need to adhere to his vision" is some thing a cult member would say when someone criticized their "dear leader". Or... I enjoyed many of the same games Steven is using for inspiration. I also don't care if the game attracts massive numbers. That’s Intrepid’s problem, not mine. As long as there’s at least one well-populated server, I’m fine with that. I understand that @Noaani feels strongly about the game needing enough success to support good servers in every region, but I’d be content with just one solid server, similar to EVE. Worst-case scenario: the game crashes and burns, and I move on to another PvX game. It wouldn’t be as big of a loss for me as it would be for Intrepid. The reason I mentioned a random L2 private server and EVE was simply to point out that there are respectable numbers of players out there enjoying PvX on random single servers for very old games in 2024. I’m not sure why you went off on a rant with made-up percentages—it’s not particularly useful or insightful to me.
AirborneBerserker wrote: » Except we aren't talking about ducks were talking about Steven, and your inability to accept that he is a human being and is just as fallible as anyone one else. "We need to adhere to his vision" is some thing a cult member would say when someone criticized their "dear leader".
Noaani wrote: » AirborneBerserker wrote: » Noaani Unfortunately this game doesn't have the luxury of having almost no competition. It has mountains of competition that's the problem. There are loads of Fantasy games out there for people to choose from. At 36 months I'll be surprised if this game has 3,000 players, let alone 30,000. That's being the result of two things having lots of competition and so many systems that reward toxic behaviors of the worst possible kind. Without a quote, I have no idea what comment of mine you are referring to here. I don't recall talking about how much competition I expect Ashes to have.
Noaani wrote: » Truth be told, his end result is about where I expect Ashes subscription numbers to be 36 months after launch - under 100k players, but enough to support a total of 2 servers worldwide of the capacity Intrepid want for this game.
AirborneBerserker wrote: » Laetitian wrote: » You did the maths so dirty, I'll have to go shower after this. Your statistics are disregarding overlap between the categories. For every group that's heavily encompassed by another (and thus creates a disproportionate relationship between the percentage the categories represent within each other compared to what they represent of the entire world) you'd have to nearly disregard those overlapping factors in your calculations, because those people are already nearly encompassed by the previous factor. That's especially crucial in the 0.1 and 0.2 factor, at least the higher of which might be nearly eliminated by this overlap. That's nearly an extra 400% on top of your result just from this one cleanup, and if the same applies to several of the other factors to varying degrees (keep in mind this cleanup applies multiplicatively just like the factors in your original calculation), that might be the difference between 100k players and 10 million players. Your either talking about a Union, a person that occupies more then one category at a time, which wouldn't make any difference. Or what your trying to say is the categories are larger then the numbers I used. My question to you would be which one? PvP? Nope notoriously small, I'm certain I wont get an argument on that one since most of the people here know that's the case. Sand Box? Again, well known that Theme park games do much much better. Sand box games just aren't nearly as popular because PEOPLE don't like them as much. Hard Core? Extremely well known that it's about 20% of players. Hardcore? Again, a notoriously tiny group, especially within the MMORPG community. But even in gaming in general. [No, that wasn't my point.]
AirborneBerserker wrote: » Laetitian wrote: » Part of which is because WoW has tainted the public image of the market and not allowed it to grow into something other than its stereotype. You can't exclude the possibility that another percent or two might simply open up for a new successful game with a different hype and deeper game mechanics. Ashes might not deliver on that, but it shouldn't lead you to forget about the possibility, because otherwise there's no point in ever trying anything new, and you could just go play WoW or forget about the genre. Which would be a good point if this game was actually trying some thing new. Which it isn't it's taking old shit giving it a fresh coat of paint. That's not new, problem is this game doesn't have hordes of people pining for the good ol' days.
Laetitian wrote: » Yes, it does. Massively so. As I laid out in fairly clear terms. If you still feel compelled to disagree, use the medical professional comparison I gave to argue your case, because it should make the problem fairly clear. And, again, keep in mind this problem applies multiplicatively each time it happens in your calculation. So even what you might assume to be negligible (and realistically it's not negligible; the 0.2 and 0.1 factor probably overlap nearly 1:1) still accumulates to a massive change of the result across the 7 factors you picked.
AirborneBerserker wrote: » Noaani wrote: » AirborneBerserker wrote: » Noaani Unfortunately this game doesn't have the luxury of having almost no competition. It has mountains of competition that's the problem. There are loads of Fantasy games out there for people to choose from. At 36 months I'll be surprised if this game has 3,000 players, let alone 30,000. That's being the result of two things having lots of competition and so many systems that reward toxic behaviors of the worst possible kind. Without a quote, I have no idea what comment of mine you are referring to here. I don't recall talking about how much competition I expect Ashes to have. Noaani wrote: » Truth be told, his end result is about where I expect Ashes subscription numbers to be 36 months after launch - under 100k players, but enough to support a total of 2 servers worldwide of the capacity Intrepid want for this game.
RonDog98 wrote: » I like your enthusiasm but those numbers don’t sound very impressive.
Vhaeyne wrote: » RonDog98 wrote: » I like your enthusiasm but those numbers don’t sound very impressive. They don't have to be. If they wanted impressive numbers they would just make a WOW clone. Intrepid believes strongly enough in their design that there is room in the market for what they are offering to take the risk in it. Let them take that risk is all I am saying.
Noaani wrote: » AirborneBerserker wrote: » Noaani wrote: » AirborneBerserker wrote: » Noaani Unfortunately this game doesn't have the luxury of having almost no competition. It has mountains of competition that's the problem. There are loads of Fantasy games out there for people to choose from. At 36 months I'll be surprised if this game has 3,000 players, let alone 30,000. That's being the result of two things having lots of competition and so many systems that reward toxic behaviors of the worst possible kind. Without a quote, I have no idea what comment of mine you are referring to here. I don't recall talking about how much competition I expect Ashes to have. Noaani wrote: » Truth be told, his end result is about where I expect Ashes subscription numbers to be 36 months after launch - under 100k players, but enough to support a total of 2 servers worldwide of the capacity Intrepid want for this game. Ok, not sure where I was talking about what competition the game would have when it goes live. I don't think the game has much in the way of competition.
AirborneBerserker wrote: » Noaani wrote: » AirborneBerserker wrote: » Noaani wrote: » AirborneBerserker wrote: » Noaani Unfortunately this game doesn't have the luxury of having almost no competition. It has mountains of competition that's the problem. There are loads of Fantasy games out there for people to choose from. At 36 months I'll be surprised if this game has 3,000 players, let alone 30,000. That's being the result of two things having lots of competition and so many systems that reward toxic behaviors of the worst possible kind. Without a quote, I have no idea what comment of mine you are referring to here. I don't recall talking about how much competition I expect Ashes to have. Noaani wrote: » Truth be told, his end result is about where I expect Ashes subscription numbers to be 36 months after launch - under 100k players, but enough to support a total of 2 servers worldwide of the capacity Intrepid want for this game. Ok, not sure where I was talking about what competition the game would have when it goes live. I don't think the game has much in the way of competition. Just because you don't talk about the tornado about to hit your house doesn't mean it's not going to tear it to pieces. The Fantasy MMORPG dosent have much competition? Are you serious right now?
AirborneBerserker wrote: » The Fantasy MMORPG dosent have much competition? Are you serious right now?
Vhaeyne wrote: » @Saabynator The game should not be a a near sandbox game. That game should be what they planned for it, not what you want for it. It's kind of difficult to parse your meaning when they’ve been marketing the game as a "sandpark." My take is that it’s just marketing BS. The majority of the systems and gameplay loops are clearly sandbox. There are a few elements, like quests and story arcs, that lean toward the theme park style, but those don't seem to be the primary focus. If they were we would be testing them sooner than later and they would talk about them a lot more. In my opinion, Ashes would still be Ashes without a single NPC with dialogue or quests. They’re calling it "sandpark" while showcasing a game that’s currently 99% sandbox and might drop to 85% sandbox at most once development is complete. What I’m saying is, whether they admit it or not, they seem to be creating the best sandbox MMORPG of our time.
The game should not be a a near sandbox game. That game should be what they planned for it, not what you want for it.
blktauna wrote: » In all honest perhaps PVE should just be random bots of certain towns going out and farming so the PVP only gang can hunt and grief them all they like. Like a more focused Mob. Then what you loot from them goes into your guild's coffers and that allows certain gear to spawn for you in the guild store, thus eliminating the whole need for any pve players and it can simply be non stop pvp.