Glorious Alpha Two Testers!
Alpha Two Phase III testing has begun! During this phase, our realms will be open every day, and we'll only have downtime for updates and maintenance. We'll keep everyone up-to-date about downtimes in Discord.
If you have Alpha Two, you can download the game launcher here, and we encourage you to join us on our Official Discord Server for the most up to date testing news.
Alpha Two Phase III testing has begun! During this phase, our realms will be open every day, and we'll only have downtime for updates and maintenance. We'll keep everyone up-to-date about downtimes in Discord.
If you have Alpha Two, you can download the game launcher here, and we encourage you to join us on our Official Discord Server for the most up to date testing news.
Comments
I think the trailer was good. More of a harbingers trailer than an Ashes trailer. But whatever. The early access is a bad idea. I didn't see the thread before made a similar one. But I think it's about get to review bombed. It's just not ready for Steam EA. Could be wrong, but the player sentiment right now isn't great from my perspective and putting the game out in the open on a platform like steam is going to get it a lot more attention from players that don't normally test mmorpgs in alpha.
Your thought process seems logical, but here's where I struggle with it:
Current operating costs are probably $5 million a month, minimum. Even if they get 200K purchases on Steam, that would only be like $7 million in IS' pocket. Seems odd to take such a risky move to extend development by 5-6 more weeks, all while claiming they are funded through launch.
I suppose maybe this portends a rush to launch an entirely unready product in the 1H 2026 due to the fact that they are about to run out of money. Seems crazy, but idk
"We did our best, but from our data it appears that the market is no longer aligned with our product, we thank all who supported us for so long."
Actually, thinking about it, that's exactly what I think this is. I hereby predict a launch by Fall 2026, maybe even Summer 2026.
Although they will get eviscerated on Steam, some small percentage of the buyers will want to continue after launch with a monthly sub. So this move buys Intrepid a few weeks of extra dev time with EA purchases, plus increases the population of 'hooked' players for monthly sub revenue after launch.
This also would make sense of Steven saying that they are funded through launch (not to say I trust Steven).
Of course all of this is horrible for the longer term dream of what we all thought Ashes would be, and pretty much means the game is doomed, but it definitely makes sense of all the puzzle pieces.
I'd put monthly costs around 2 million. I'd guess they have raised about 80mil in total. First few years 2016 to 2021 small team cost, maybe 50 devs, then 2021 up to 100, now up to 200.
2016 to 2021 costs est 10 to 25mil (<50)
2021 to 2024 costs est 20 to 40mil (<100)
2025 costs est 20 mil (<200)
So they've burned through 50mil to 85mil of money raised. Out of an estimated 80mil raised. Cosmetic sales aren't counted, the sales of packages are convoluted because the number of ways it's been sold. All just a bunch of guess work. Not even their investors can see the books.
Best case scenario I see is they got funds from now to 2027 at full burn. Worst case they're broke. But as of right now there's no red flag signal they're out of funds. I'd say the first sign will be layoffs.
The people I talk to that haven't been involved with Ashes have not been involved based on the games design, not the cost. I don't know anyone that has avoided the game due to the cost, though that is obviously a limited sample size.
10 years ago I would agree.
Lately though, at least with the people I know, supporting a few MMO's while in developmentis seen as just a cost of wanting to play this genre.
The point I would make though, is that i am mostly talking about people that have opted to NOT support this game, regardless of the cost - due to game design decisions.
I think your operating cost figure is a little high.
That said, if money is the reason for releasing on Steam, I would expect an early release, followed by an early shutting down of the servers.
I think that this is more likely than people realise.
And they don't seem to realise that people wanting to look into the game when they see it on Steam are also likely to check out the official forum, where it's now a long list of "Why the fuck are you going on Steam, this isn't ready yet?!" and "Please stop ignoring your testers!" and "The direction you're taking is bad, just bad - please stop making things worse every patch!"
And that's even from people like me that have been accused on multiple occasions of White-Knighting for them.
Ah well.
One last go, just for old times' sake!
Funnily enough, I've heard that discord is more glazey. Intresting that PTR feedback threads have also disappeared from the forums. Guess Intrepid completely stopped caring about this place.
EA on Steam has been done by other games before so there is precedence. Based on what I've seen so far Ashes is going to get slaughtered and I'm certain that Intrepid/Steven knows this. But, Ashes is going to be in EA for several years so there will be time to turn the sentiment around with future builds and updates.
There's no way this game goes into beta in 2026 and no way it gets released as a v1.0 before 2028. At least not with the feature set they promised, not with full quests, not with good voiceovers, not with stability, performance, and quality.
As others have stated, at that point in the future I doubt that many people will care and it is also very likely that other IP's will have filled the MMO void by then. AoC is a very narrow niche game but a case could be made that over a 20-30 year lifespan it will actually become fleshed out, interesting, and entertaining.