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Early Access Announcement & Trailer

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Comments

  • VolgarisVolgaris Member, Alpha Two
    ELRYNO wrote: »
    Can I gather people's thoughts on going from the current state of alpha 2 testing to "early access" in a month's time? Will this have a detrimental impact on the public's perception of the game if seen in its current form with lack of content & systems compared to when it is titled as "alpha 2 development"?

    Also, I was unimpressed with the cinematic. It felt to me like the art style was so disjointed from that of the game that I felt like I couldn't connect with it. Thoughts?

    Edit: I was expecting the trailer to involve a lot more gritty scenes of factions fighting, highlighting the conflict people are going to encounter regularly in the world of Verra

    I think the trailer was good. More of a harbingers trailer than an Ashes trailer. But whatever. The early access is a bad idea. I didn't see the thread before made a similar one. But I think it's about get to review bombed. It's just not ready for Steam EA. Could be wrong, but the player sentiment right now isn't great from my perspective and putting the game out in the open on a platform like steam is going to get it a lot more attention from players that don't normally test mmorpgs in alpha.
  • VolgarisVolgaris Member, Alpha Two
    Noaani wrote: »
    If it is testers they want from Steam, then the game is doomed. People that play MMO's as their primary game already know about Ashes and have either rejected it as something they want to participate in, or have tested it already. The population on Steam are essentially non-MMORPG players, and any feedback from them will be based on that.
    I would say there are some players that are just jaded with mmorpgs and refuse to pay into early access in any form. I know quite a few. Everything else pretty much spot on with my thinking. They need/want more money or testers. I lean towards the money either need or want. They did grow quickly as a dev team to 250~ and income was flat, and progress hasn't really reflected the growth imo. But Steven says "It's funded fully", so we wait.
  • ElectronnElectronn Member, Alpha Two
    Noaani wrote: »
    So, I've been thinking about this, and to me, this move is Steven giving up on the game being viable in any long term kind of fashion.

    There are two reasons for Steven to head to Steam right now. The first is that they need more money, the second being that they need more testers.

    The second reason doesn't really hold up all that well, as Intrepid as a company do not have the open communication needed to make a Steam based test actually worth while. This worked for BG3, but only because they had crazy amounts of communication with the early access players, and had a game that was inherently exponentially better than Ashes to start with.

    If it is testers they want from Steam, then the game is doomed. People that play MMO's as their primary game already know about Ashes and have either rejected it as something they want to participate in, or have tested it already. The population on Steam are essentially non-MMORPG players, and any feedback from them will be based on that.

    I fail to see value of feedback from people that do not know a genre when the game in question is being squarely aimed at veterans of that genre.

    This leaves money as the primary driving factor. This does make some sense, and Ludullu's comment above in relation to the first two hours of gameplay is a valid point towards that (I would not be surprised if there are improvements to the character creator before it launches on Steam).

    If this is the reason, Steven is killing off the long term viability of the game in order to keep it in development a little longer - as there are very few games that have hit Steam in an actual testing state and done well long term. Most early access games are treated by both players and publishers as a preview of the game, not as a test.

    Your thought process seems logical, but here's where I struggle with it:

    Current operating costs are probably $5 million a month, minimum. Even if they get 200K purchases on Steam, that would only be like $7 million in IS' pocket. Seems odd to take such a risky move to extend development by 5-6 more weeks, all while claiming they are funded through launch.

    I suppose maybe this portends a rush to launch an entirely unready product in the 1H 2026 due to the fact that they are about to run out of money. Seems crazy, but idk

  • AzheraeAzherae Member, Alpha One, Alpha Two, Early Alpha Two
    I fear the words:

    "We did our best, but from our data it appears that the market is no longer aligned with our product, we thank all who supported us for so long."
    One of the most enduring 'fantasies' of the human spirit, is to either always have people willing to help... or to be strong enough to never need any.
  • ElectronnElectronn Member, Alpha Two
    Electronn wrote: »
    Noaani wrote: »
    So, I've been thinking about this, and to me, this move is Steven giving up on the game being viable in any long term kind of fashion.

    There are two reasons for Steven to head to Steam right now. The first is that they need more money, the second being that they need more testers.

    The second reason doesn't really hold up all that well, as Intrepid as a company do not have the open communication needed to make a Steam based test actually worth while. This worked for BG3, but only because they had crazy amounts of communication with the early access players, and had a game that was inherently exponentially better than Ashes to start with.

    If it is testers they want from Steam, then the game is doomed. People that play MMO's as their primary game already know about Ashes and have either rejected it as something they want to participate in, or have tested it already. The population on Steam are essentially non-MMORPG players, and any feedback from them will be based on that.

    I fail to see value of feedback from people that do not know a genre when the game in question is being squarely aimed at veterans of that genre.

    This leaves money as the primary driving factor. This does make some sense, and Ludullu's comment above in relation to the first two hours of gameplay is a valid point towards that (I would not be surprised if there are improvements to the character creator before it launches on Steam).

    If this is the reason, Steven is killing off the long term viability of the game in order to keep it in development a little longer - as there are very few games that have hit Steam in an actual testing state and done well long term. Most early access games are treated by both players and publishers as a preview of the game, not as a test.

    Your thought process seems logical, but here's where I struggle with it:

    Current operating costs are probably $5 million a month, minimum. Even if they get 200K purchases on Steam, that would only be like $7 million in IS' pocket. Seems odd to take such a risky move to extend development by 5-6 more weeks, all while claiming they are funded through launch.

    I suppose maybe this portends a rush to launch an entirely unready product in the 1H 2026 due to the fact that they are about to run out of money. Seems crazy, but idk

    Actually, thinking about it, that's exactly what I think this is. I hereby predict a launch by Fall 2026, maybe even Summer 2026.

    Although they will get eviscerated on Steam, some small percentage of the buyers will want to continue after launch with a monthly sub. So this move buys Intrepid a few weeks of extra dev time with EA purchases, plus increases the population of 'hooked' players for monthly sub revenue after launch.

    This also would make sense of Steven saying that they are funded through launch (not to say I trust Steven).

    Of course all of this is horrible for the longer term dream of what we all thought Ashes would be, and pretty much means the game is doomed, but it definitely makes sense of all the puzzle pieces.
  • VolgarisVolgaris Member, Alpha Two
    200 people making 100k a year is a little over 1.6 million a month in salary. Put on other costs of running a business in CA, 5 million may not be far fetched, probably a little high. 100k is a low salary for San Diego for this field, but based off some of the hiring forms I've seen they we're starting low on the salary. 120 to 150k for non-entry roles makes the most sense. But not all roles will be > 100k.

    I'd put monthly costs around 2 million. I'd guess they have raised about 80mil in total. First few years 2016 to 2021 small team cost, maybe 50 devs, then 2021 up to 100, now up to 200.
    2016 to 2021 costs est 10 to 25mil (<50)
    2021 to 2024 costs est 20 to 40mil (<100)
    2025 costs est 20 mil (<200)

    So they've burned through 50mil to 85mil of money raised. Out of an estimated 80mil raised. Cosmetic sales aren't counted, the sales of packages are convoluted because the number of ways it's been sold. All just a bunch of guess work. Not even their investors can see the books.

    Best case scenario I see is they got funds from now to 2027 at full burn. Worst case they're broke. But as of right now there's no red flag signal they're out of funds. I'd say the first sign will be layoffs.

  • NoaaniNoaani Member, Intrepid Pack, Alpha Two
    Okeydoke wrote: »
    But the key is the price reduction.
    While there will always be outliers, basically all MMORPG players I know value their time much more than a small amount of money.

    The people I talk to that haven't been involved with Ashes have not been involved based on the games design, not the cost. I don't know anyone that has avoided the game due to the cost, though that is obviously a limited sample size.
  • NoaaniNoaani Member, Intrepid Pack, Alpha Two
    Volgaris wrote: »
    Noaani wrote: »
    If it is testers they want from Steam, then the game is doomed. People that play MMO's as their primary game already know about Ashes and have either rejected it as something they want to participate in, or have tested it already. The population on Steam are essentially non-MMORPG players, and any feedback from them will be based on that.
    I would say there are some players that are just jaded with mmorpgs and refuse to pay into early access in any form. I know quite a few. Everything else pretty much spot on with my thinking. They need/want more money or testers. I lean towards the money either need or want. They did grow quickly as a dev team to 250~ and income was flat, and progress hasn't really reflected the growth imo. But Steven says "It's funded fully", so we wait.

    10 years ago I would agree.

    Lately though, at least with the people I know, supporting a few MMO's while in developmentis seen as just a cost of wanting to play this genre.

    The point I would make though, is that i am mostly talking about people that have opted to NOT support this game, regardless of the cost - due to game design decisions.
  • NoaaniNoaani Member, Intrepid Pack, Alpha Two
    Electronn wrote: »
    Noaani wrote: »
    So, I've been thinking about this, and to me, this move is Steven giving up on the game being viable in any long term kind of fashion.

    There are two reasons for Steven to head to Steam right now. The first is that they need more money, the second being that they need more testers.

    The second reason doesn't really hold up all that well, as Intrepid as a company do not have the open communication needed to make a Steam based test actually worth while. This worked for BG3, but only because they had crazy amounts of communication with the early access players, and had a game that was inherently exponentially better than Ashes to start with.

    If it is testers they want from Steam, then the game is doomed. People that play MMO's as their primary game already know about Ashes and have either rejected it as something they want to participate in, or have tested it already. The population on Steam are essentially non-MMORPG players, and any feedback from them will be based on that.

    I fail to see value of feedback from people that do not know a genre when the game in question is being squarely aimed at veterans of that genre.

    This leaves money as the primary driving factor. This does make some sense, and Ludullu's comment above in relation to the first two hours of gameplay is a valid point towards that (I would not be surprised if there are improvements to the character creator before it launches on Steam).

    If this is the reason, Steven is killing off the long term viability of the game in order to keep it in development a little longer - as there are very few games that have hit Steam in an actual testing state and done well long term. Most early access games are treated by both players and publishers as a preview of the game, not as a test.

    Your thought process seems logical, but here's where I struggle with it:

    Current operating costs are probably $5 million a month, minimum. Even if they get 200K purchases on Steam, that would only be like $7 million in IS' pocket. Seems odd to take such a risky move to extend development by 5-6 more weeks, all while claiming they are funded through launch.

    I suppose maybe this portends a rush to launch an entirely unready product in the 1H 2026 due to the fact that they are about to run out of money. Seems crazy, but idk

    I think your operating cost figure is a little high.

    That said, if money is the reason for releasing on Steam, I would expect an early release, followed by an early shutting down of the servers.
  • ELRYNOELRYNO Member, Alpha One, Alpha Two, Early Alpha Two
    Azherae wrote: »
    I fear the words:

    "We did our best, but from our data it appears that the market is no longer aligned with our product, we thank all who supported us for so long."

    I think that this is more likely than people realise.
  • daveywaveydaveywavey Member, Alpha Two
    ELRYNO wrote: »
    Azherae wrote: »
    I fear the words:

    "We did our best, but from our data it appears that the market is no longer aligned with our product, we thank all who supported us for so long."

    I think that this is more likely than people realise.

    And they don't seem to realise that people wanting to look into the game when they see it on Steam are also likely to check out the official forum, where it's now a long list of "Why the fuck are you going on Steam, this isn't ready yet?!" and "Please stop ignoring your testers!" and "The direction you're taking is bad, just bad - please stop making things worse every patch!"

    And that's even from people like me that have been accused on multiple occasions of White-Knighting for them.


    Ah well.
    One last go, just for old times' sake!
    ted-lasso-afc-richmond.gif
    This link may help you: https://ashesofcreation.wiki/


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  • CawwCaww Member, Alpha Two
    Noaani wrote: »
    ....
    There are two reasons for Steven to head to Steam right now. The first is that they need more money....
    The timing of this Steam move indicates Intrepid wants/needs as much of the X-Mass Holiday spending season as possible which is now starting to kickoff next week with all the Black Friday hype being generated everywhere and impulse purchases are the norm.
  • DygzDygz Member, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One, Alpha Two, Early Alpha Two
    Yeah, but probably would have been better to wait until after New Years to give the dev team a decent rest.
  • LudulluLudullu Member, Alpha Two
    daveywavey wrote: »
    And they don't seem to realise that people wanting to look into the game when they see it on Steam are also likely to check out the official forum, where it's now a long list of "Why the fuck are you going on Steam, this isn't ready yet?!" and "Please stop ignoring your testers!" and "The direction you're taking is bad, just bad - please stop making things worse every patch!"
    And it's the same case on reddit.

    Funnily enough, I've heard that discord is more glazey. Intresting that PTR feedback threads have also disappeared from the forums. Guess Intrepid completely stopped caring about this place.
  • AnchorAnchor Member, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One, Alpha Two, Early Alpha Two
    The trailer was unimpressive. Ugly characters, poor production value, uninspiring voiceover. They had better cinematics and music six years ago.

    EA on Steam has been done by other games before so there is precedence. Based on what I've seen so far Ashes is going to get slaughtered and I'm certain that Intrepid/Steven knows this. But, Ashes is going to be in EA for several years so there will be time to turn the sentiment around with future builds and updates.

    There's no way this game goes into beta in 2026 and no way it gets released as a v1.0 before 2028. At least not with the feature set they promised, not with full quests, not with good voiceovers, not with stability, performance, and quality.

    As others have stated, at that point in the future I doubt that many people will care and it is also very likely that other IP's will have filled the MMO void by then. AoC is a very narrow niche game but a case could be made that over a 20-30 year lifespan it will actually become fleshed out, interesting, and entertaining.
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