How many people do you think we will have at launch?

ArchivedUser

I read an article that as of a few months ago there were already 500,000 registered players, with no advertisement actually being done outside the kickstarter. With the game still at least a year away and still an alpha and beta to come where do you think the population will be by launch? At 500,000 register's users right now. I think reaching launch with 1 million players wouldn't be out of the question. What do you think it'll be? And what do you consider a successful amount to be? Outside of WoW having millions of people still, I don't think MMORPG exactly advertise population or even who would be #2 but I think having 1 million people is a huge deal if it can be reached by launch. 

ArchivedUser

Paid accounts is where it is at. From previous statements we know that over 40k people have bought packages and that number just keeps climbing. The 500k registered account number is not indicative of true interest in the game as many people made several dummy accounts to try and get A0 access that could be considered dead accounts. My opinion is that Ashes will hit the 100k mark probably for pre-sale accounts, take a huge bump the month after launch, and then will plateau at the 3 month mark like any other sub game. The indicator on whether the game will be niche or continue gaining subs if if those numbers keep climbing at the 6 month mark. Some people who bought packages with sub-time will play, find that Ashes is not what they are looking for and leave after their time expires. The trick is for them to keep replacing them with people who do find a home.

ArchivedUser

I remember the launch of Age of Conan.  They thought they'd have 200k.  It was about 2 Million.  Which crushed their ability to respond and property service the game.  That was all paid too it wasn't F2P.  So I think 1 million at launch is very reasonable.  It could be way higher, we'll get an idea once the NDA comes down and we can start posting videos.

ArchivedUser

If Steven is wise, he will pre-sell a month of subscription time at least one month in advance.

That way, they will have a firm number of how many people minimum are going to show on launch day. 

ArchivedUser

I agree with misg. I personally know over 20 people that will try the game at or after launch who don't even have a registered account. Most people just see a video about a kickstarted video game and say: "hmph I will wait until after launch." To see if it's worth it, and don't hype over it, not even look at news about it. Especially in countries like mine where those 15$ dollars represent nearly a whole workday worth not to mention 200$+ of preorder.

ArchivedUser

Santy182 said:

I agree with misg. I personally know over 20 people that will try the game at or after launch who don't even have a registered account. Most people just see a video about a kickstarted video game and say: "hmph I will wait until after launch." To see if it's worth it, and don't hype over it, not even look at news about it. Especially in countries like mine where those 15$ dollars represent nearly a whole workday worth not to mention 200$+ of preorder.

Yeah I came in after the kickstarter but I don't know if I would if done it or not. I do think 500k registered users is legitimate and that is a whole year+ before launch and real advertising. Probably because I saw what happen with EQNext and how that fell apart, but this game feels different. It's going in a direction no other MMORPG ever has.  

ArchivedUser

I'd expect a few mil.

ArchivedUser

@Ravnodaus

Bold prediction! If they launched with 2-3 million they would be the most successful MMORPG behind Wow. I'd be surprised if intrepid is even capable of handling 2-3 million. I don't even know how many their servers can take. 

ArchivedUser

misg said:

I remember the launch of Age of Conan.  They thought they'd have 200k.  It was about 2 Million.  Which crushed their ability to respond and property service the game.  That was all paid too it wasn't F2P.  So I think 1 million at launch is very reasonable.  It could be way higher, we'll get an idea once the NDA comes down and we can start posting videos.

I was one of those 2mil and I remember the pain haha.
I'd imagine 1 mil + for this. I'm hoping all my age peers (We played EQ1, UO, and SWG in our 20s) will come out for this. But us oldies have so much less time now to spend on gaming =(

ArchivedUser

McKnightrider said:

@Ravnodaus

Bold prediction! If they launched with 2-3 million they would be the most successful MMORPG behind Wow. I'd be surprised if intrepid is even capable of handling 2-3 million. I don't even know how many their servers can take. 

This game is pulling MMO vets back into the fold, and will probably also attract the normal launch crowd numbers on top of that. It may be a bold prediction but this game will launch big. (Assuming there isn't some horrible train wreck along the way in development until then)

ArchivedUser

40. 40 people at launch.

ArchivedUser

All of them. Just all of them

ArchivedUser

Shoklen said:

40. 40 people at launch.

Not 42?

ArchivedUser

Three

ArchivedUser

They will all come eventually

ArchivedUser

Ilyanna said:

misg said:

I remember the launch of Age of Conan.  They thought they'd have 200k.  It was about 2 Million.  Which crushed their ability to respond and property service the game.  That was all paid too it wasn't F2P.  So I think 1 million at launch is very reasonable.  It could be way higher, we'll get an idea once the NDA comes down and we can start posting videos.

I was one of those 2mil and I remember the pain haha.
I'd imagine 1 mil + for this. I'm hoping all my age peers (We played EQ1, UO, and SWG in our 20s) will come out for this. But us oldies have so much less time now to spend on gaming =(

I am your age peer.  I was 22 when EQ came out.  I played MUDs before that.

ArchivedUser

I don't really want to put a number on this but there is a huge thirst for a new MMO out there, many may not even be aware of ashes yet. I know many of my guild mates have not even looked at it yet as it is over a year away from release so they see little point in following it.

ArchivedUser

"If you build it, they will come."

I know my little brother will be playing it, and if he is going to play it then he will get all his MMO buddies to play it as well (around 20 people). He's not registered on the website because he's lurking behind the shadows checking out the bits and pieces I send him once in a while. Marketing is the key to recruiting players. Especially with competition like Pantheon, Rise of the Fallen and Chronicles of Elyria stealing players. PC Gamer, Computer Gaming World, MMO Online, etc. will be the best sources of advertisement for the game (besides youtube, twitch, and twitter). The deal with My.com was kind of a bump in the road (lost a few European players), but if things go smoothly from here and Intrepid keeps all their promises then 1 million or even a few million on launch day is totally possible. 

ArchivedUser

Darksaber said:

"If you build it, they will come."

I know my little brother will be playing it, and if he is going to play it then he will get all his MMO buddies to play it as well (around 20 people). He's not registered on the website because he's lurking behind the shadows checking out the bits and pieces I send him once in a while. Marketing is the key to recruiting players. Especially with competition like Pantheon, Rise of the Fallen and Chronicles of Elyria stealing players. PC Gamer, Computer Gaming World, MMO Online, etc. will be the best sources of advertisement for the game (besides youtube, twitch, and twitter). The deal with My.com was kind of a bump in the road (lost a few European players), but if things go smoothly from here and Intrepid keeps all their promises then 1 million or even a few million on launch day is totally possible. 

CoE will never launch and Pantheon is a mostly PvE game so I don't think they are real competition for Ashes.

ArchivedUser

Jahlon said:

Darksaber said:

"If you build it, they will come."

I know my little brother will be playing it, and if he is going to play it then he will get all his MMO buddies to play it as well (around 20 people). He's not registered on the website because he's lurking behind the shadows checking out the bits and pieces I send him once in a while. Marketing is the key to recruiting players. Especially with competition like Pantheon, Rise of the Fallen and Chronicles of Elyria stealing players. PC Gamer, Computer Gaming World, MMO Online, etc. will be the best sources of advertisement for the game (besides youtube, twitch, and twitter). The deal with My.com was kind of a bump in the road (lost a few European players), but if things go smoothly from here and Intrepid keeps all their promises then 1 million or even a few million on launch day is totally possible. 

CoE will never launch and Pantheon is a mostly PvE game so I don't think they are real competition for Ashes.

Last time I checked (late August) CoE was bustling with enthusiastic players, and the devs just came out with a roleplay event on their website for all their loyalists (it was called "The Plague") where players roleplay their character to see how they will handle it (whether they cure the plague itself or heal players). So it was kind of like a big deal during their development. But I guess development can change in an instant or blink of an eye. And I didn't know Pantheon was primarily just PvE. But bottom line is, if these two "aren't real competition for Ashes", even better. Looks like that million mark will be obtainable after all.

ArchivedUser

Over 9000!!!

ArchivedUser

More than Bless, less than WoW. Somewhere in between.

ArchivedUser

Expecting a few million to begin with. If WoW can do it then it would have to be joke as to why we can't have that many players as well. 500k registered players already for a game thats still not an MMORPG and is in testing... We better be prepared for launch, that's all I'm saying.

ArchivedUser

Darksaber said:

"If you build it, they will come."

I know my little brother will be playing it, and if he is going to play it then he will get all his MMO buddies to play it as well (around 20 people). He's not registered on the website because he's lurking behind the shadows checking out the bits and pieces I send him once in a while. Marketing is the key to recruiting players. Especially with competition like Pantheon, Rise of the Fallen and Chronicles of Elyria stealing players. PC Gamer, Computer Gaming World, MMO Online, etc. will be the best sources of advertisement for the game (besides youtube, twitch, and twitter). The deal with My.com was kind of a bump in the road (lost a few European players), but if things go smoothly from here and Intrepid keeps all their promises then 1 million or even a few million on launch day is totally possible. 

I hadn't heard if elyria...i looked them up and I don't think a game that began a decade ago and still isn't done is going to make any waves haha. I did look up pantheon, I was thoroughly unimpressed. It looked like any other bland and boring mmorpg. It's gone the route of nostalgia by just giving an updated version of old MMORPGs instead of being something new which will bring in more of a niche fanbase I think. Plus it didn't even hit half its crowdfunded goal of $800k.i think it only hit $400k, which is pretty weak. I'm sure it'll garner some attention but it looked so basic. There's crowfall which looks interesting, but that game feels less like a MMORPG and more of a pvp battle ground simulator, last I checked they had virtually no PvE elements outside a few basic enemies. I think it'll have a different fan base altogether, plus I don't care for the fact that they went and allowed beta players to start playing and keep their progress months before the release. I couldn't find any game that wasn't some free to play microtransactions p2w Korean based game that came close to what ashes is doing. Not saying AoC is unrivaled or anything since you have established MMORPG that was still popular, but I looked through several upcoming MMORPGs and AoC is just doing WAY more than anyone else at a faster and more successful pace. 200+ employees by the end of next year is pretty impressive for a company. 

ArchivedUser

if MMO launches have taught me one thing it's that the devs underestimate the amount of stress the servers take so i hope they go above and beyond their expectations on server stability.

ArchivedUser

ArchivedUser

One mirrion dorrar worth of prayers! ALOT!

ArchivedUser

I'm gonna guess 1,420,442.

ArchivedUser

These are the factors as I see them;

---because of the lack of AAA MMORPG's coming out.
---open development so content creators AoC content appealing to said PvP/PvE/Roleplay watchers yet who are avid gamers themselves band-wagoning and hype-training with broad appeal.
---AoC being a differently styled MMORPG briging much needed vitality to the genre (nodes being a digitized Dungeon's & Dragon"s dungeon master... the longest running version of an RPG - tabletop or digital)
--- Creative rights for the game STAYING WITH THE DEVELOPERS... meaning that the game shall create a base that shall love the game... not "like"  but "love" shall cause longtimer Original Gamers (OG's) like myself to be there on launch day!!!

Conservatively 1 million
My gut 2+ million at launch

ArchivedUser

However many they think they are going to have I hope they are prepared for  twice that number.

I'm hoping for a smooth launch with a minimum of reasons for the little bitch crowd to piss, whine, and moan about not being able to log in to the server they want so they can play with their friends and/or guild.

"I'm paying for this; I should be able to <fill in blank>!!!  The game sucks, the developers suck, the community sucks. blah, blah, blah...."  You know the type.

We know that the trolls will be out in force (they always are) making up a bunch of shit if they have to just to bash the game and try to rain on as many parades as possible.  Also need to be on the lookout for DDOS attacks.  You know those will be attempted as well.

ArchivedUser

Dygz said:

Three

Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch.