Interesting discussion. Next question....how many servers will there need to be for (whatever number of players) at start? Which begs the question of how many players can a server handle?
The world will be big and not all players will be online at once. Can any of you technically inclined players opine on server populations? Can a server handle 20k online characters at once? Is max expected logins some predictable % of registered characters?
It depends on how well A2 goes and how many streamers are showing AOC content, but you got to remember this is a western developed mmorpg and it is rare to have one of this scale with the talent behind the project. So taking these points into consideration I would say at least a 3mil because people are fed up of P2W or any form of cash grab + the state of wow and the genre as a whole atm all roads lead to ashes.
It depends on how well A2 goes and how many streamers are showing AOC content, but you got to remember this is a western developed mmorpg and it is rare to have one of this scale with the talent behind the project. So taking these points into consideration I would say at least a 3mil because people are fed up of P2W or any form of cash grab + the state of wow and the genre as a whole atm all roads lead to ashes.
3 million on release would be quite impressive. My concern though is if it's only 10k per server and your dealing with that many people were looking at 300 server... which is a lot.
It depends on how well A2 goes and how many streamers are showing AOC content, but you got to remember this is a western developed mmorpg and it is rare to have one of this scale with the talent behind the project. So taking these points into consideration I would say at least a 3mil because people are fed up of P2W or any form of cash grab + the state of wow and the genre as a whole atm all roads lead to ashes.
3 million on release would be quite impressive. My concern though is if it's only 10k per server and your dealing with that many people were looking at 300 server... which is a lot.
they paying for hosted servers so if they need more it pretty much will be easier to get more and steven is fully prep for having that number of players also they buying mega servers which contains mini servers within
@McKnightrider Don't forget that the servers are for 10k concurrent players. Even if we have 3 million people playing at launch they are not all playing at the same time because only a few can play 24/7. So you don't need 300 servers for 3 million people.
Thank you all, good insights. So there easily could be 40 or 50 servers.
Now...server names? Likely it will be based on game lore, but it might be interesting to have player nominated names. Just in case that happens, I will nominate first. Erica, my first server on L2. Or maybe Bosco, my cat. Or maybe my nickname, Lard*ss.
Thank you all, good insights. So there easily could be 40 or 50 servers.
Now...server names? Likely it will be based on game lore, but it might be interesting to have player nominated names. Just in case that happens, I will nominate first. Erica, my first server on L2. Or maybe Bosco, my cat. Or maybe my nickname, Lard*ss.
its possible for steven do to an event for server names we know servers will be named after gods for certain but some could be named after famous people or areas of verra past or present but we were promised to get 2 server names so 1 EU and 1 NA in phase 2 of A1 which is when go back to mmorpg stuff again
500k - 1 million would be my guess. Though it depends on how much coverage it gets leading up to release next year.
They had over 500k registered as of September. I can't imagine there being 100k duplicate accounts or anything and that's a full 14 months before their intended release without any actual marketing (minus the kickstarter). It will be interesting to see how much it grows in 1 year knowing there's a base of at least 500k registered players.
Hopefully they list all the server names before launch. This way guilds can coordinate and decide ahead of time. Bless failed miserably with their launch because they didn't do this, and they started with too few servers as well. Both of these things together really wrecked their launch.
Im guessing an easy 1+ million easy at launch. Unfortunately, if they are planning to launch Q4 2019, they will be competing with Classic WoW... which you know Blizzard will be hyping up and advertising as much as possible.
I agree with a poster from another thread, it would be VERY wise to give a month or 2 of game time to every person who buys the game, just to ensure that the numbers stay elevated after launch... because everyone knows, if you have game time available, you will play. Lol.
Im guessing an easy 1+ million easy at launch. Unfortunately, if they are planning to launch Q4 2019, they will be competing with Classic WoW... which you know Blizzard will be hyping up and advertising as much as possible.
I agree with a poster from another thread, it would be VERY wise to give a month or 2 of game time to every person who buys the game, just to ensure that the numbers stay elevated after launch... because everyone knows, if you have game time available, you will play. Lol.
Im guessing an easy 1+ million easy at launch. Unfortunately, if they are planning to launch Q4 2019, they will be competing with Classic WoW... which you know Blizzard will be hyping up and advertising as much as possible.
I agree with a poster from another thread, it would be VERY wise to give a month or 2 of game time to every person who buys the game, just to ensure that the numbers stay elevated after launch... because everyone knows, if you have game time available, you will play. Lol.
You cannot "BUY" the game. It is a sub only game.
well everyone who has the lifetime sub bought the game and will never pay anything but you are right and im being a pain ^^
Im guessing an easy 1+ million easy at launch. Unfortunately, if they are planning to launch Q4 2019, they will be competing with Classic WoW... which you know Blizzard will be hyping up and advertising as much as possible.
I agree with a poster from another thread, it would be VERY wise to give a month or 2 of game time to every person who buys the game, just to ensure that the numbers stay elevated after launch... because everyone knows, if you have game time available, you will play. Lol.
Im guessing an easy 1+ million easy at launch. Unfortunately, if they are planning to launch Q4 2019, they will be competing with Classic WoW... which you know Blizzard will be hyping up and advertising as much as possible.
I agree with a poster from another thread, it would be VERY wise to give a month or 2 of game time to every person who buys the game, just to ensure that the numbers stay elevated after launch... because everyone knows, if you have game time available, you will play. Lol.
You cannot "BUY" the game. It is a sub only game.
Or are you "BUYING" the game every month?!
If you cannot allow a serious answer to a serious question then just walk away @McKnightrider we have no need for your childish remarks.
EDIT: As a more serious answer for your childish remark I should add that you are wrong as well. We already have a term for that called "Rent". You are basically renting the game every month if we wanna go down your road.
Im guessing an easy 1+ million easy at launch. Unfortunately, if they are planning to launch Q4 2019, they will be competing with Classic WoW... which you know Blizzard will be hyping up and advertising as much as possible.
I agree with a poster from another thread, it would be VERY wise to give a month or 2 of game time to every person who buys the game, just to ensure that the numbers stay elevated after launch... because everyone knows, if you have game time available, you will play. Lol.
You cannot "BUY" the game. It is a sub only game.
well everyone who has the lifetime sub bought the game and will never pay anything but you are right and im being a pain ^^
Only the chosen may experience the lifetime sub .w.
I don’t think it matters how many will be here when it launches. I would be more interested in how many are still around after the one year anniversary.
I don’t think it matters how many will be here when it launches. I would be more interested in how many are still around after the one year anniversary.
Been there done that and I have the badge to prove it ^^
I don’t think it matters how many will be here when it launches. I would be more interested in how many are still around after the one year anniversary.
True, however, if there are low amount of players at the start - logically - there will be low after a year too.
It ain't the early days of gaming. The PC market reached it max since long now. Games aren't getting much more players after launch as they used in the past (unless there are heavy changes, but that can be counted as a new/expansion release).
I would've estimate that it will have ~1mill players who try it on launch, however if I look that there are only 500k registered accounts so far, It is more legit to lower this expectation to 750k.
Also as it's a subscription based game, the player count will heavily sink. Sure many will try it, but less than 10% will keep paying monthly (Just look at it that there are 100+ million wow accounts, yet even in it's prime, the subscription count was at 12,5m at most. Now it's like 3m.)
So the expected subscriber count will be around 50k, which (deepens on success) can sunk to 20k, or increase to 100k.
Although I give it 80% chance that the subscription model will fail within 2years after release.
It simply not competitive, when there are tons of cheaper alternatives.
Also just think a little. If I need to pay anyway, why would I pay for nothing, if I can just pay to buy p2w items in a another game, where I will be the XXXgoodXXX afterwards?
There was a game called alloads online.... It's a very p2w game. They experimented with it... they created a sever, where there was a monthly cost, but no in game shop in exchange... guess... the subscription server was empty, as noone was dumb enough to pay monthly, if he can just pay the cost of 3-5 month, and become strong in the f2p server...
Considering the playerbase that are playing anything other than MMOs at the moment because the existing ones suck for them for one reason or other.
Considering the playerbase that are playing existing MMOs and hate them as much as love them that would jump ship for a better product.
Considering the new playerbase that havent really been shown the glory of how a true community based MMO makes all else pale into insignificance.
I would generally guesstimate from my rectum a figure of 50,000,000 potential AoC players.
But it all depends on AoC ticking all of their progress boxes and meeting all of their kickstarter mission statements, before launch, demonstrating with cold hard brutal proven facts.
Then people will come.
Normally many would wait to see if the game is stable and WAI through word of mouth and trickle in.
AoC will be proven stable and WAI long before launch.
At a conservative estimate, I'd say an initial 10% conversion rater at launch with more to follow if AoC is as described.
As many of the good posts above have stated, there will be a variety of different types of people attracted to the game, both at first and after it has been released for a while.
Some people jump into any new releases, some will not like it, and leave. Others will like it and stay.
Some people are used to P2W games. Perhaps many of those won't ;like that they cannot buy their way to victory, they will get frustrated and leave. Some will be 'awakened' and really like the non-P2W and stick around.
Some people will try it and, once the 'P2W crowd' gives up and leaves, they will like the game even more and stay with AoC while they would have left a P2W game.
Some will love the nodes, economy, PvP, player base and various other things in the game and will stick around. Others will find the game too complicated and go back to Pokémon and checkers.
But there will be a large core of players (like me and many of us on these boards a year prior to launch) who have hungered for a game like this. Who want a non P2W, deep, interesting, exciting game. There is a large community just waiting for a game like this. We have evidence of the existence of this large community from the crowd-funding and pre-orders. I hope we love the game. I expect that we will convince many thousands of our old gaming buddies, our children, our friends, our co-workers to join up in the months after launch -- thus replacing many of those who try it and leave.
What will this mean? We will end up with exactly the type of game community we hope to have. Fun people, real gamers, people who are delighted to have the P2W, botters, cheaters and folks like that gone.
Yeah, I'm an optimist...but maybe I'm right and we will have a long term, sustainable game we all really like. I am quite willing to pay a monthly subscription for an experience like that.
my friend is saving money just for AOC, me and my hubby have our pcs rdy and me brother is hyped but has no pc, hope he gets it by than...from all or these ppl only i am regisered so do the math...i have high hopes for the lunch and especially 3 month into the game, i thiunk its gonna explode after r
Comments
Interesting discussion. Next question....how many servers will there need to be for (whatever number of players) at start? Which begs the question of how many players can a server handle?
The world will be big and not all players will be online at once. Can any of you technically inclined players opine on server populations? Can a server handle 20k online characters at once? Is max expected logins some predictable % of registered characters?
So are we predicting 20 servers at launch in NA?
Thanks, TT
Don't forget that the servers are for 10k concurrent players.
Even if we have 3 million people playing at launch they are not all playing at the same time because only a few can play 24/7.
So you don't need 300 servers for 3 million people.
Thank you all, good insights. So there easily could be 40 or 50 servers.
Now...server names? Likely it will be based on game lore, but it might be interesting to have player nominated names. Just in case that happens, I will nominate first. Erica, my first server on L2. Or maybe Bosco, my cat. Or maybe my nickname, Lard*ss.
EDIT: As a more serious answer for your childish remark I should add that you are wrong as well. We already have a term for that called "Rent". You are basically renting the game every month if we wanna go down your road.
As many of the good posts above have stated, there will be a variety of different types of people attracted to the game, both at first and after it has been released for a while.
Some people jump into any new releases, some will not like it, and leave. Others will like it and stay.
Some people are used to P2W games. Perhaps many of those won't ;like that they cannot buy their way to victory, they will get frustrated and leave. Some will be 'awakened' and really like the non-P2W and stick around.
Some people will try it and, once the 'P2W crowd' gives up and leaves, they will like the game even more and stay with AoC while they would have left a P2W game.
Some will love the nodes, economy, PvP, player base and various other things in the game and will stick around. Others will find the game too complicated and go back to Pokémon and checkers.
But there will be a large core of players (like me and many of us on these boards a year prior to launch) who have hungered for a game like this. Who want a non P2W, deep, interesting, exciting game. There is a large community just waiting for a game like this. We have evidence of the existence of this large community from the crowd-funding and pre-orders. I hope we love the game. I expect that we will convince many thousands of our old gaming buddies, our children, our friends, our co-workers to join up in the months after launch -- thus replacing many of those who try it and leave.
What will this mean? We will end up with exactly the type of game community we hope to have. Fun people, real gamers, people who are delighted to have the P2W, botters, cheaters and folks like that gone.
Yeah, I'm an optimist...but maybe I'm right and we will have a long term, sustainable game we all really like. I am quite willing to pay a monthly subscription for an experience like that.