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Ashes Release Date Estimate Poll

akabearakabear Member, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
Just a quick poll, nothing too serious, to ascertain the general trend of what the community are predicting the release date for AoC might be.


Comments

  • akabearakabear Member, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
  • NoaaniNoaani Member, Intrepid Pack
    End of 2023 at the earliest.

    Your poll doesn't go that far.
  • NagashNagash Member, Leader of Men, Kickstarter, Alpha One
    2024
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    The dead do not squabble as this land’s rulers do. The dead have no desires, petty jealousies or ambitions. A world of the dead is a world at peace
  • akabearakabear Member, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
    Interesting to see that there are thoughts to go longer than 2023 even 2024.

    I frivolously based the scale on the comment some time ago that Beta would be relatively quick and so if Alpha is over sometime after mid year next year, based on the most recent schedule, and perhaps wishful thinking a pause and then Alpha following not so long after then launch can`t be that far away. will be an interesting journey to see where it really ends up.
  • I actually hope 2023 or longer, nevermind the global pandemic and not working in offices etc there's alot in this game/world so I hope they take their sweet time to do it right.

    After listening to how Steven talks in the latest couple monthly updates it sounds like they plan to do just that, so I'm happy. You only get to launch once and if they can get it right, the success will follow imo especially with how streamers can bring people in.
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  • The poll shouldn't have so many 2022 options. I highly doubt they will have a stable product prior to Q4 2023 imho.
  • maouwmaouw Member, Alpha One, Adventurer
    edited October 2020
    we're on the cusp of a1, and that's scheduled to finish in May 2021.
    That's ~6months of one testing phase.

    after a1 they'll be collating feedback,
    designing solutions
    prototyping solutions
    implementing and tweaking
    adding new content (including 64 augment trees)
    THEN we'll be ready to start alpha 2.

    I haven't even mentioned beta yet.

    After all the alphas they're going to need a few months at least for polish.
    (I've read a suggestion that polish should encompass 50% of total development time - which I honestly don't think is what AoC will do - but if that were the case we're looking at like 3+ years dedicated to polish after beta2 is done).
    Beat the hype drums, do all the conferences
    (hopefully take a calm-before-the-storm pre-launchday break?)

    I will be SHOOK if they release in 2022!
    I wish I were deep and tragic
  • Cold 0ne FTBCold 0ne FTB Member, Alpha One, Adventurer
    edited October 2020
    maouw wrote: »
    we're on the cusp of a1, and that's scheduled to finish in May 2021.
    That's ~6months of one testing phase.

    after a1 they'll be collating feedback,
    designing solutions
    prototyping solutions
    implementing and tweaking
    adding new content (including 64 augment trees)
    THEN we'll be ready to start alpha 2.

    I haven't even mentioned beta yet.

    After all the alphas they're going to need a few months at least for polish.
    (I've read a suggestion that polish should encompass 50% of total development time - which I honestly don't think is what AoC will do - but if that were the case we're looking at like 3+ years dedicated to polish after beta2 is done).
    Beat the hype drums, do all the conferences
    (hopefully take a calm-before-the-storm pre-launchday break?)

    I will be SHOOK if they release in 2022!

    Exactly what they said. Based on the current schedule Alpha 1 will be finished by the end of Q1 2021. They will need a period of time to adjust the game after that, we will likely not hear anything about Alpha 2 for several months. Alpha 2 will likely be announced around the same time alpha was announced placing it around Q4 of 2021- Q1 2022. Then we have the two Betas. Beta 1 will likely occur Q4 of 2022 and Beta 2 in Q2-Q3 of 2023. Realistically we are looking at a 2024 release date. That is part of why Intrepid isn't giving us a date because realistically all of this hype is great but it came at a poor time.

    This game is 3-4 years away assuming no major setbacks. That being said, Intrepid has really increased their momentum. There has a been a staggering level of progress made since Apocalypse. When we hit the Alpha 2/Beta 1 area we will likely see Apocalypse coming back up (whenever the majority of core systems are in place and the bulk of the work is done) because Intrepid will still be trying to carry the momentum they have made earlier.

    Also this is the one of the flaws with them sharing development with us. It creates an unrealistic expectation about where the game is. As some people miss interrupt the testing environments as a properly functioning server. There is a long road ahead. enjoy the hype, get involved in the community. There are a lot of great content creators Jahlon is a really good one. Share flaws you have seen in other games, give your opinion on what you see in the Ashes footage, you would be surprised how good Intrepid is at listening to player feedback. There is a lot you can do ahead of time but until the Betas are released we won't be able to pin point a true ETA for the game.
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    That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange aeons even death may die.
  • We're going to need to see the gap between A1 and A2 to get an accurate reference for how fast they can push stuff out and tweak things.
  • VarkunVarkun Member, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
    Computer say's no!
    3KAqRIf.png
    Close your eyes spread your arms and always trust your cape.
  • arsnnarsnn Member, Intrepid Pack, Alpha One
    edited October 2020
    There are barely any realisitc time windows represented in the poll
  • VarkunVarkun Member, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
    I guess the simple answer is that it will be ready when its ready.

    Content push is well under way for alpha 2 according to last directors letter, road map for alpha 1 testing is set for next 6 months. New larger round of hiring is set to begin in January getting closer to the 140 in house staff mark Steven mentioned sometime back. The Beta phases are supposed to be quite short only a number of weeks just depends how much time there is between the Beta tests.

    Best gestimation pie in the sky navel gaze estimate is very late 2022 to early 2023. But honestly refer back to my first sentence.
    3KAqRIf.png
    Close your eyes spread your arms and always trust your cape.
  • when. it's. done.
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  • akabearakabear Member, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
    edited October 2020
    Interesting from the poll, albeit short of date range some would have liked, and as such perhaps skewed results but 76% believe the release date will be around 2022 to early 2023.

    Whilst the general community would like to see the game released when polished and done, I still think that the business acumen will need to prevail at some time to manage cost/time.

    Making the following broad assumptions to illustrate the thought process:.
    • Statistics show that the average salary for an average job in America is $5,555. / month
    • The real cost of keeping an employee varies between business but a basic average is somewhere around 1.2 - 1.4. Let`s use 1.4 for argument
    • This means average business cost would be $7,777 / month
    • The company will ramp up to 140 employees.
    • Assuming for ease of calculation the above is true, that is a minimum cash burn of $1,088,780 / month

    Whilst there is likely an overrun on this project, I think there is a point in every business where they get critical of the immediate cost, even if the future return is likely to compensate. It is a considerable cost and often a risk to the project to keep going, so time will see



    Average Salary
    https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/Average-Salary-per-Month
    Cost of Employee
    https://www.sba.gov/blog/how-much-does-employee-cost-you#:~:text=There's a rule of thumb,little harder to pin down.
  • NoaaniNoaani Member, Intrepid Pack
    akabear wrote: »
    Whilst the general community would like to see the game released when polished and done, I still think that the business acumen will need to prevail at some time to manage cost/time.
    The reason most projects release before they are ready is because of a need to appease shareholders.

    It may be that they see all the money spent on development and want a return on it, or it may be that the title in question needs to be released in a specific quarter in order for the company to hit it's targets.

    Neither of these applies to Intrepid. While the game obviously can't be in development forever, the funding is there to keep the game in development as long as is reasonable to get it ready - and there isn't the pressure of shareholders.

    Late 2023 is the absolute earliest we should expect to see the release. Any earlier, and the game will suffer the same fate as every other game that released before it was ready.

  • Unsure why the poll starts so early. We have been told roughly 2 years from now and when have you EVER seen a game released BEFORE it's estimated timeline???

    So I'm being hopeful and say summer 2023, giving them an 8-9 month cushion.
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  • Cold 0ne FTBCold 0ne FTB Member, Alpha One, Adventurer
    I still think 2023 is ambitious. It really depends on how well the alpha cycles go. Assuming that they are either on time or do really well the betas will hopefully be in 2022. Honestly I just want to see gameplay at this point. Its more of a countdown to alpha 2 than countdown for release.
    ZxbhjES.gif

    That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange aeons even death may die.
  • NerrorNerror Member, Alpha One, Adventurer
    Tomorrow. it will come out tomorrow. You guys wait and see, one day I'll be right!
  • daveywaveydaveywavey Member
    edited October 2020
    Nerror wrote: »
    Tomorrow. it will come out tomorrow. You guys wait and see, one day I'll be right!

    I want to see this same post every day until release..... :p>:)
    This link may help you: https://ashesofcreation.wiki/
  • A lot more 2023 predictions regardless of the quarter than I was expecting. In some of you guys' predictions that would be another 3 years of development on top of the already 4-5 years. That would mean it will take 7-8 years of development total for this game...I understand the reasoning why you guys want to wait, regardless that is a very long time. I think a lot of you guys are too concerned about the time it takes to develop the game versus the staff that is developing the game. From what Steven has said about late nights I don't think it has anything to do with work ethic but rather the amount of staff. Money isn't a issue for them, from Kickstarter to Steven's success to the preorders they aren't hurting. I understand COVID now is hurting them but when we are talking about completing the game in 2023 there is plenty of time to adjust to make up for lost ground. Steven already mentioned hiring at the start of the year so here to hoping it won't take to 2023 to finish this game...
  • Cold 0ne FTBCold 0ne FTB Member, Alpha One, Adventurer
    A lot more 2023 predictions regardless of the quarter than I was expecting. In some of you guys' predictions that would be another 3 years of development on top of the already 4-5 years. That would mean it will take 7-8 years of development total for this game...I understand the reasoning why you guys want to wait, regardless that is a very long time. I think a lot of you guys are too concerned about the time it takes to develop the game versus the staff that is developing the game. From what Steven has said about late nights I don't think it has anything to do with work ethic but rather the amount of staff. Money isn't a issue for them, from Kickstarter to Steven's success to the preorders they aren't hurting. I understand COVID now is hurting them but when we are talking about completing the game in 2023 there is plenty of time to adjust to make up for lost ground. Steven already mentioned hiring at the start of the year so here to hoping it won't take to 2023 to finish this game...

    I feel that. They have taken on a really ambitious project. Most MMOs start with significantly less features. Essentially we are getting the features of a 5 year old MMO in a brand new game. It takes a special kind of dedication to produce a game like that. It wouldn't take a lot to usurp the top MMos at this point in time. There are so many issues with wow, eso, BDO, etc etc that people are dying for something new. Something real that isn't just a pile of crap. They have decided to give us more. I personally can wait because I know that they won't fall to the same shortcomings the big ones do now. Ashes will likely have its own unique issues. If nothing else I have nothing but respect for the devs. Keep kicking ass guys!
    ZxbhjES.gif

    That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange aeons even death may die.
  • NoaaniNoaani Member, Intrepid Pack
    That would mean it will take 7-8 years of development total for this game.
    ESO was in development for 7 years.

    Should have been 9.
  • Cold 0ne FTBCold 0ne FTB Member, Alpha One, Adventurer
    Noaani wrote: »
    That would mean it will take 7-8 years of development total for this game.
    ESO was in development for 7 years.

    Should have been 9.

    :kek: More like 13 years with the recent tests. Nothing like beta testing a five year old game.
    ZxbhjES.gif

    That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange aeons even death may die.
  • Should have been 9.
    [/quote]

    This really addresses one of my points in my post. Why should it not have been 5 years? Like why does it have to be a certain time to attain a level of perfection? To me this is a staff issue, and by staff issue I mean purely the amount of staff on hand. More staff = more work being done.
  • Cold 0ne FTBCold 0ne FTB Member, Alpha One, Adventurer
    Should have been 9.

    This really addresses one of my points in my post. Why should it not have been 5 years? Like why does it have to be a certain time to attain a level of perfection? To me this is a staff issue, and by staff issue I mean purely the amount of staff on hand. More staff = more work being done. [/quote]

    Not nessicarily there is a point at which organizing those staff and ensuring those staff have what they need to do their work starts to cut into time and slows development. This is a brand new studio and they lack alot of infrastructure that larger companies have. I think that's one of the biggest things slowly them down. Having to build both a game and a studio at the same time.
    ZxbhjES.gif

    That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange aeons even death may die.
  • PlagueMonkPlagueMonk Member
    edited October 2020
    Should have been 9.

    This really addresses one of my points in my post. Why should it not have been 5 years? Like why does it have to be a certain time to attain a level of perfection? To me this is a staff issue, and by staff issue I mean purely the amount of staff on hand. More staff = more work being done.


    Well the biggest obstacle to this is, while you are in development your revenue stream is pretty much zero. You are usually either spending the capital from the last game you made or are digging into your reserves, hoping they don't run out before it's completed. IS seems to have some income from a few sources but I guarantee you those don't even begin to cover the monthly operating costs.

    Companies can't just continue to endlessly throw money at a project as big as an MMO without some deadline because they don't have deep pockets like Blizzard or EA or even Amazon. And even those companies eventually NEED that game they invested in to be profitable. Take New World as an example.....Amazon has the revenue but think of how much MORE it's costing them to delay the game by 9 months with still no payback.

    Another factor involved is hiring and then turning around and firing people after a development cycle is complete. The more they hire temporarily, the more they have to just layoff down the road (this is one of the many reasons I reconsidered getting into the gaming industry)

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  • When it's ready.
  • akabearakabear Member, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
    I look back to when I played Ultima I when it first came out, thinking it was the most amazing game there ever was and nothing could ever exceed it! Since that time, I have been simply amazed about what continues to come out but look back to the earlier ones where there was just a joy for what it was, without any real expectations.

    I, for one, will be happy to enjoy AoC warts and all with no real expectations but just a few hopes here and there! I have enjoyed he ride so far!
  • NagashNagash Member, Leader of Men, Kickstarter, Alpha One
    Jagaro wrote: »
    When it's ready.

    Pretty much my view as well
    nJ0vUSm.gif

    The dead do not squabble as this land’s rulers do. The dead have no desires, petty jealousies or ambitions. A world of the dead is a world at peace
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