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Ashes Release Date Estimate Poll
akabear
Member, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
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Your poll doesn't go that far.
I frivolously based the scale on the comment some time ago that Beta would be relatively quick and so if Alpha is over sometime after mid year next year, based on the most recent schedule, and perhaps wishful thinking a pause and then Alpha following not so long after then launch can`t be that far away. will be an interesting journey to see where it really ends up.
After listening to how Steven talks in the latest couple monthly updates it sounds like they plan to do just that, so I'm happy. You only get to launch once and if they can get it right, the success will follow imo especially with how streamers can bring people in.
That's ~6months of one testing phase.
after a1 they'll be collating feedback,
designing solutions
prototyping solutions
implementing and tweaking
adding new content (including 64 augment trees)
THEN we'll be ready to start alpha 2.
I haven't even mentioned beta yet.
After all the alphas they're going to need a few months at least for polish.
(I've read a suggestion that polish should encompass 50% of total development time - which I honestly don't think is what AoC will do - but if that were the case we're looking at like 3+ years dedicated to polish after beta2 is done).
Beat the hype drums, do all the conferences
(hopefully take a calm-before-the-storm pre-launchday break?)
I will be SHOOK if they release in 2022!
Exactly what they said. Based on the current schedule Alpha 1 will be finished by the end of Q1 2021. They will need a period of time to adjust the game after that, we will likely not hear anything about Alpha 2 for several months. Alpha 2 will likely be announced around the same time alpha was announced placing it around Q4 of 2021- Q1 2022. Then we have the two Betas. Beta 1 will likely occur Q4 of 2022 and Beta 2 in Q2-Q3 of 2023. Realistically we are looking at a 2024 release date. That is part of why Intrepid isn't giving us a date because realistically all of this hype is great but it came at a poor time.
This game is 3-4 years away assuming no major setbacks. That being said, Intrepid has really increased their momentum. There has a been a staggering level of progress made since Apocalypse. When we hit the Alpha 2/Beta 1 area we will likely see Apocalypse coming back up (whenever the majority of core systems are in place and the bulk of the work is done) because Intrepid will still be trying to carry the momentum they have made earlier.
Also this is the one of the flaws with them sharing development with us. It creates an unrealistic expectation about where the game is. As some people miss interrupt the testing environments as a properly functioning server. There is a long road ahead. enjoy the hype, get involved in the community. There are a lot of great content creators Jahlon is a really good one. Share flaws you have seen in other games, give your opinion on what you see in the Ashes footage, you would be surprised how good Intrepid is at listening to player feedback. There is a lot you can do ahead of time but until the Betas are released we won't be able to pin point a true ETA for the game.
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange aeons even death may die.
Content push is well under way for alpha 2 according to last directors letter, road map for alpha 1 testing is set for next 6 months. New larger round of hiring is set to begin in January getting closer to the 140 in house staff mark Steven mentioned sometime back. The Beta phases are supposed to be quite short only a number of weeks just depends how much time there is between the Beta tests.
Best gestimation pie in the sky navel gaze estimate is very late 2022 to early 2023. But honestly refer back to my first sentence.
Whilst the general community would like to see the game released when polished and done, I still think that the business acumen will need to prevail at some time to manage cost/time.
Making the following broad assumptions to illustrate the thought process:.
Whilst there is likely an overrun on this project, I think there is a point in every business where they get critical of the immediate cost, even if the future return is likely to compensate. It is a considerable cost and often a risk to the project to keep going, so time will see
Average Salary
https://www.ziprecruiter.com/Salaries/Average-Salary-per-Month
Cost of Employee
https://www.sba.gov/blog/how-much-does-employee-cost-you#:~:text=There's a rule of thumb,little harder to pin down.
It may be that they see all the money spent on development and want a return on it, or it may be that the title in question needs to be released in a specific quarter in order for the company to hit it's targets.
Neither of these applies to Intrepid. While the game obviously can't be in development forever, the funding is there to keep the game in development as long as is reasonable to get it ready - and there isn't the pressure of shareholders.
Late 2023 is the absolute earliest we should expect to see the release. Any earlier, and the game will suffer the same fate as every other game that released before it was ready.
So I'm being hopeful and say summer 2023, giving them an 8-9 month cushion.
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange aeons even death may die.
I want to see this same post every day until release.....
I feel that. They have taken on a really ambitious project. Most MMOs start with significantly less features. Essentially we are getting the features of a 5 year old MMO in a brand new game. It takes a special kind of dedication to produce a game like that. It wouldn't take a lot to usurp the top MMos at this point in time. There are so many issues with wow, eso, BDO, etc etc that people are dying for something new. Something real that isn't just a pile of crap. They have decided to give us more. I personally can wait because I know that they won't fall to the same shortcomings the big ones do now. Ashes will likely have its own unique issues. If nothing else I have nothing but respect for the devs. Keep kicking ass guys!
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange aeons even death may die.
Should have been 9.
:kek: More like 13 years with the recent tests. Nothing like beta testing a five year old game.
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange aeons even death may die.
[/quote]
This really addresses one of my points in my post. Why should it not have been 5 years? Like why does it have to be a certain time to attain a level of perfection? To me this is a staff issue, and by staff issue I mean purely the amount of staff on hand. More staff = more work being done.
This really addresses one of my points in my post. Why should it not have been 5 years? Like why does it have to be a certain time to attain a level of perfection? To me this is a staff issue, and by staff issue I mean purely the amount of staff on hand. More staff = more work being done. [/quote]
Not nessicarily there is a point at which organizing those staff and ensuring those staff have what they need to do their work starts to cut into time and slows development. This is a brand new studio and they lack alot of infrastructure that larger companies have. I think that's one of the biggest things slowly them down. Having to build both a game and a studio at the same time.
That is not dead which can eternal lie. And with strange aeons even death may die.
Well the biggest obstacle to this is, while you are in development your revenue stream is pretty much zero. You are usually either spending the capital from the last game you made or are digging into your reserves, hoping they don't run out before it's completed. IS seems to have some income from a few sources but I guarantee you those don't even begin to cover the monthly operating costs.
Companies can't just continue to endlessly throw money at a project as big as an MMO without some deadline because they don't have deep pockets like Blizzard or EA or even Amazon. And even those companies eventually NEED that game they invested in to be profitable. Take New World as an example.....Amazon has the revenue but think of how much MORE it's costing them to delay the game by 9 months with still no payback.
Another factor involved is hiring and then turning around and firing people after a development cycle is complete. The more they hire temporarily, the more they have to just layoff down the road (this is one of the many reasons I reconsidered getting into the gaming industry)
I, for one, will be happy to enjoy AoC warts and all with no real expectations but just a few hopes here and there! I have enjoyed he ride so far!
Pretty much my view as well