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Some speculation and napkin math on how many freeholds can be in the game.

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Comments

  • SongRuneSongRune Member, Alpha One, Alpha Two, Early Alpha Two
    edited July 2023
    It's not quite "how many freeholds will exist", but I'll just leave this here, as it's related. From the feedback thread...
    SongRune wrote: »
    Jahlon wrote: »
    So for the constructive criticism, I would remind Intrepid that "you are not your designs, your designs are not you"

    With that said, I think this pivot on Freeholds is a terrible one. It isn't learning the lessons on Open World Housing from Archeage, Elyon, and isn't taking into account the problems from Final Fantasy XIV.

    If you want to limit the number of Master and Grandmaster Processors, than limit how and when and where they can get those top tier crafting stations.

    However, saying there are "3 other types of housing" when we know in Node houses start at 8 in a Stage 3 Node and Grow to some unknown number at Stage 6, really isn't a solution since the number of Nodes dropped from 103 to 85 and there is no housing in stage 0/1/2 Nodes

    Stage 3 Nodes have 50 apartments, and Stage 4 and higher ONLY have more if the Mayor builds the building.

    So basically a percentage of the population will own a home or a freehold, and everyone else will be stuck in Instanced Housing.

    If you haven't paid attention to any of the other games that have open world and instanced housing, Instanced Housing is a consolation prize and a "thank you for being a second class citizen" award.

    Wait seriously? Are these numbers correct?

    85 nodes. 50 apartments (hell, let's say mayor builds double: 100 apartments). That's 8,500 people with housing. 50,000 registered accounts per server. Hell let's double it again. 17,000. And again. Every mayor in every possible node builds 7 extra apartment buildings instead of something else. 34,000. At 50,000 registered accounts per server, that's 16,000 homeless people without even instanced housing.

    The 8*85=680 (or doubled 1,360 (or doubled-doubled 2,720)) non-instanced node houses aren't even gonna make a dent.

    (16,000-2720)/85=156.

    Are there gonna be 156 freeholds at every single node? I really hope you did the math, Intrepid, cause it seems like you're gonna have a homeless problem even on a very well-developed server.

    In terms of the "You don't need a freehold. There will be lower tier housing for everyone" argument...

    Maybe not?

    This is obviously equally rough back of the napkin math based on numbers I didn't personally verify. But then again... I did it the generous way. I doubled, and doubled, and doubled, even when there might be more profit to be made with different mayoral investments. I assumed every possible node was built up fully (in terms of requirements for housing anyway), even though that's literally not possible with the Vassal system.

    Freeholds aside, at the "back of the envelope math" level, Ashes has a homeless problem.

    Maybe they're relying on "everyone has a ton of alts which share housing with each other"? I know a lot of people play this way. (If the story's any good, I probably won't have any alts.) But at that point all it takes is mayors investing a bit less generously in housing instead of other things, and "not assuming an impossible level of server development".

    Or you know. People buying an instanced apartment in different city for every alt...

    Actually. If accounts share housing, since it's one per character... Maybe I will have a few lv1 alts.
  • LudulluLudullu Member, Alpha Two
    SongRune wrote: »
    Freeholds aside, at the "back of the envelope math" level, Ashes has a homeless problem.
    ulawweoeebfd.png
    The whole system seems to have changed (well, at least the houses did), so I think we just gotta wait till next month's stream (or most likely in two months).
  • SpifSpif Member, Alpha Two
    As far as napkin math goes, I'd say that a lot less than 300 sq km will be available parcels.

    But that said, there are going to be plenty of freeholds. Why?
    • Gold cost will be high
    • Material costs for buildings will be high
    • Time investment to get anything out of those costs will be high
    • Number of players on a server is not the limit. It's number of L50 active players. IMO that won't hit 50k even on highly populated servers. Midrange servers I think will have 1-5k, and that will take months.
    • Not all of the L50s will want to bother, and many that do will pool for a family system.

    What there won't be is plenty of freeholds in decent locations. Some freeholds will be far away from a developed node that has crafting stations. That means long mule/caravan trips to sell refined mats.

    The video showed upgrade costs (not final of course), but a single upgrade to one building needs 2000 wood, 1500 metal. I'm guessing that's an hour+ of gathering for a single upgrade.

    One real fly in the ointment is going to be server merges. If you're on the smaller server and you get merged into another, what happens to your freehold investment?
  • Nerror wrote: »
    One real fly in the ointment is going to be server merges. If you're on the smaller server and you get merged into another, what happens to your freehold investment?

    What was the solution before this announcement about server merges?
  • NiKr wrote: »
    Laetitian wrote: »
    Hm. I guess perhaps natural resource limitations and regular sieges will ensure that this system won't be abused too heavily by people who plan to win all highly contested auctions and resell for real-world money, or at absurd prices? That would be the only reason I could imagine for why he would have changed his stance on this.
    He likes to change it quite often. Last time we heard about freeholds - we couldn't even sell those fuckers :D Oh and btw, the time before that time - WE COULD :D:D I had a mighty roflcopter about that when I learned about it after the stream.

    The sandal lord is very flip floppy

    What is the chance that the cosmetic store will end up selling in game currencies?
    Because if some players will be able to get the gold via RMT to buy freeholds, then Steven will lose the opportunity to have some profit. And I would rather buy from store as I never used RMT.
  • SongcallerSongcaller Member, Alpha One, Alpha Two, Early Alpha Two
    Raven016 wrote: »
    NiKr wrote: »
    Laetitian wrote: »
    Hm. I guess perhaps natural resource limitations and regular sieges will ensure that this system won't be abused too heavily by people who plan to win all highly contested auctions and resell for real-world money, or at absurd prices? That would be the only reason I could imagine for why he would have changed his stance on this.
    He likes to change it quite often. Last time we heard about freeholds - we couldn't even sell those fuckers :D Oh and btw, the time before that time - WE COULD :D:D I had a mighty roflcopter about that when I learned about it after the stream.

    The sandal lord is very flip floppy

    What is the chance that the cosmetic store will end up selling in game currencies?
    Because if some players will be able to get the gold via RMT to buy freeholds, then Steven will lose the opportunity to have some profit. And I would rather buy from store as I never used RMT.

    The game doesn't let gold drop from mobs. I doubt you'll get to buy gold with real money from the devs.
    2a3b8ichz0pd.gif
  • Neurath wrote: »
    Raven016 wrote: »
    NiKr wrote: »
    Laetitian wrote: »
    Hm. I guess perhaps natural resource limitations and regular sieges will ensure that this system won't be abused too heavily by people who plan to win all highly contested auctions and resell for real-world money, or at absurd prices? That would be the only reason I could imagine for why he would have changed his stance on this.
    He likes to change it quite often. Last time we heard about freeholds - we couldn't even sell those fuckers :D Oh and btw, the time before that time - WE COULD :D:D I had a mighty roflcopter about that when I learned about it after the stream.

    The sandal lord is very flip floppy

    What is the chance that the cosmetic store will end up selling in game currencies?
    Because if some players will be able to get the gold via RMT to buy freeholds, then Steven will lose the opportunity to have some profit. And I would rather buy from store as I never used RMT.

    The game doesn't let gold drop from mobs. I doubt you'll get to buy gold with real money from the devs.

    It might be so now. But I see people being surprised by changes except @NiKr
    Also in the stream it was said that things might change because is a game in development.
    If this was not the first change, then any change can be assumed to happen.
  • SongcallerSongcaller Member, Alpha One, Alpha Two, Early Alpha Two
    I'm all for mobs dropping gold but then gold would have to be dropped on death rather than certificates. I'd rather drop tokens and have the gold protected. Anything can change though except 90% of the current playerbase would leave if P2W and P4C suddenly appeared.
    2a3b8ichz0pd.gif
  • Neurath wrote: »
    I'm all for mobs dropping gold but then gold would have to be dropped on death rather than certificates. I'd rather drop tokens and have the gold protected. Anything can change though except 90% of the current playerbase would leave if P2W and P4C suddenly appeared.
    True, some players will be upset and leave. Others would come.
    Is hard when a game you invested in, changes or ends up different.
    At least when that game is the first one. But after you support 3-4 games and you see them change or fail, it gets easier. Or you become more cautious.
  • SongcallerSongcaller Member, Alpha One, Alpha Two, Early Alpha Two
    Most of the players won't rmt because most of the players believe in skill and risk vs reward. Its why most of us are here for. Mmos failed for a lot of reasons and I don't know if ashes will fail. I hope to play ashes for years but I rarely get my wishes :)
    2a3b8ichz0pd.gif
  • if Alpha 2 is at least 2 years long, then you might get your wish fulfilled.
    To play the released game a few years will be harder, with all those bugs we liked, being fixed.
    Also when this game is released another one might be in it's Alpha 2...
  • SongcallerSongcaller Member, Alpha One, Alpha Two, Early Alpha Two
    I'm not sure I will play a2 religiously. I might just wait for release. I haven't got the patience to level 8 toons at live and also countless toons in a2.
    2a3b8ichz0pd.gif
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