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Gathering Rarity: Understanding the Formula

Let’s dive into the mechanics of gathering resource rarity and uncover some fascinating insights into how this system works.
All Data based on guids: 6064630356728217692, 6064631668863336448

A Server Behavior
First, let’s establish an important point: the rarity of a resource you gather doesn’t rely solely on what’s visible in your Gathering interface. Instead, it’s also influenced by the server's deterministic behavior.

When the server decides a Rare resource will appear in a specific location, it spawns there. A notable issue is that server settings often respawn resources with the same rarity after cooldowns, but we’ll set that aside for now. Instead, we’ll focus on decoding the Gathering Rarity Formula itself.


The Formula Behind Rarity
1. Factors That Affect Rarity
The formula considers the sum of all rarity-influencing factors, including Gathering buffs, equipped gear, and tools. The effect of Rarity is nonlinear:

Even with 0 Rarity, you have a 10% chance to collect a resource of higher quality than what the server initially generated.
At 8,409 Rarity, your chance rises to 50%.

Here's how the progression looks:
0 Rarity → 10%
316 Rarity → 15%
700 Rarity → 20%
1,264 Rarity → 25%
1,984 Rarity → 30%
2,893 Rarity → 35%
3,712 Rarity → 37%
4,448 Rarity → 39%
5,840 Rarity → 42%
7,008 Rarity → 45%
8,409 Rarity → 50%


2.The Dual Roll System
Gathering employs a two-roll system reminiscent of tabletop gaming:

The first roll determines if the resource’s quality improves beyond the server-generated base.
The second roll decides how much the quality improves.

Importantly, your Rarity stat only affects the first roll. The second roll is entirely random and independent.


3. How It Works
Imagine your Rarity is 0. When gathering a resource, the first roll gives you a 10% chance of success. If successful, the second roll takes place. This roll, which ranges from 0.0 to 100.0, determines the resource’s final rarity:

Less than 88.89 → Green (Uncommon)
88.90–98.89 → Blue (Rare)
98.90–99.89 → Orange (Heroic)
99.90–99.99 → Purple (Epic)
Exactly 100 → Gold (Legendary)

If the resource’s base rarity exceeds what the second roll determines, the higher rarity remains unchanged.


Calculating the Odds
Given these parameters, let’s calculate your chances of gathering each rarity tier with 0 Rarity:
Common: 90%
Uncommon: 8.889%
Rare: 0.999%
Heroic: 0.099%
Epic: 0.009%
Legendary: 0.001%

As your Rarity stat increases, so do your odds. For instance, with a Rarity of 1,000, the chances shift to:
Common: 77.3%
Uncommon: 20.178%
Rare: 2.268%
Heroic: 0.225%
Epic: 0.020%
Legendary: 0.002%


Observations from Hunting
Interestingly, resources spawned by the Hunting profession appear to default to white (Common) rarity. This allows for clear statistical observations, showing how the distribution functions in real-world gameplay scenarios.

UPD. Added simple calculator here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QbSOHPcWPri-UE-NU_tEiZ1YI3-D-A_b1My-0_WTwYw/