How far behind are we actually?

OrcLuckOrcLuck Member, Braver of Worlds
edited August 1 in General Discussion
It seems to me that for such a core system as caravans to only be to the point where a very linear display example is possible (one that might have also been shared at gamescon_...it seems to me that we're in for quite a wait.

Obviously that isn't good news, however we aren't in this for good news, we're in this for a game. Development has ups and downs, and we've clearly heard absolutely very little in terms of how the development is going. I don't know about you, but Crowfall never made me feel like I was being deceived.

They earnestly showed the very ugly early workings of the game and their improvisations with the play tests to get people something somewhat fun to test, while they worked on stuff.

I very much find that appealing. Whether or not you wish backers to sign an NDA or not to keep as much of the ugliness mum to your future buyers I don't mind, but sitting here twiddling my thumbs completely in the blind, isn't something I feel shows that I've been appreciated in the leap I took to help fund the game.
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Comments

  • ArzosahArzosah Member, Leader of Men
    It's hard to say really, APOC was down for several months so there was no alpha testing taking place while they were fixing the back end, however even though we couldn't test the game they were still able to work on assets for the game. But I'd guess were still a year out from release.
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  • DygzDygz Member, Braver of Worlds
    edited August 1
    I'm expecting that we're in for quite a wait.
    I don't mind twiddling my thumbs now - I got hands-on way earlier than ever before.
    And, I'd rather wait for them to fix stuff while the test environment is down for months than have them try to make a 24/7 test environment playable with fixes every couple of weeks.
    The latter is what caused Landmark/EQNext to fail - treating Alpha as if it were a regular release.
  • AzathothAzathoth Member, Braver of Worlds
    I don't know if what they are showing us, or want to show us, has a direct correlation to how far along they are. Maybe, maybe not. Personally, if I wait another 2 years and the game is what I want/expect, I will be happy. Even if others are not. There will be those no longer interested, but they will be replaced by new blood.
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    +1 Skull & Crown metal coin
  • WololoWololo Member, Leader of Men
    I feel like they went from being half a year ahead of schedule to being a year behind now. lol something doesnt make sence there. But the simple fact that there is money invested and a profit needs to be made keeps me positive they will and have to deliver the game without starcitizen delays :#
    Do yall think it would it be realistic to expect alpha1 around januari 2020 ?
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  • NagashNagash Member, Leader of Men
    My guess would be two years behind
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    The dead do not squabble as this land’s rulers do. The dead have no desires, petty jealousies or ambitions. A world of the dead is a world at peace
  • no comment!
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  • Wandering MistWandering Mist Member, Founder
    edited August 1
    The average development time for an mmorpg of this scale is 5-6 years. Given that this is a brand new studio with an inexperienced creative director (Steven has never worked in games development before now), I would expect it to take the full 6 years to complete. The project started in January 2016, so we are 3.5 years into development. From what we've seen so far I'd say we are about on track for a 2022 release.

    The original 2020 release date was never going to happen, so using that as the expected release date is pointless in my opinion. Yes Steven made a big mistake in setting 2020 as the benchmark for a release, but I'm going to chalk that down to his lack of experience rather than the project running into problems and being set back.
  • altodoraltodor Member, Braver of Worlds
    bcgiant wrote: »
    no comment!

    You played yourself.

    Yeah I know the intended message before you throw me in the dungeon.
  • altodoraltodor Member, Braver of Worlds
    The average development time for an mmorpg of this scale is 5-6 years. Given that this is a brand new studio with an inexperienced creative director (Steven has never worked in games development before now), I would expect it to take the full 6 years to complete. The project started in January 2016, so we are 3.5 years into development. From what we've seen so far I'd say we are about on track for a 2022 release.

    The original 2020 release date was never going to happen, so using that as the expected release date is pointless in my opinion. Yes Steven made a big mistake in setting 2020 as the benchmark for a release, but I'm going to chalk that down to his lack of experience rather than the project running into problems and being set back.

    I dont know anything about dev stuff but this seems like the most sane way to think about it.

    Hopefully intrepid is special and its not the case. It definitely feels like they will be done before 2022 though
  • mrwafflesmrwaffles Member, Pioneer
    I am a software dev IRL and I'd like to say that everyone here (and most in this community) are amazing. I wish all my users were as understanding like you all. I think user demand is very important. Got to keep lazy devs motivated and business honest. More often users get mean and down right nasty when deadlines are missed and that starts to form bad community culture.

    My thoughts on the deadline:

    I would not be surprised if a PR video / stream were to come out soon about an extension. I don't think it'll be as late as 2022 as some people here are saying. An interesting stat in software is that most work gets done the last 20% of the deadline. Multiple factors play into that but I have found it to be very true. Also you know they are keeping a lot of stuff close to their chest. They share the fun with us but they got to protect their IP from other companies / competition.

    TL;DR This community is great for not being jerks on deadlines, and they are a bit behind but not by much (6 months? )
  • VarkunVarkun Member, Braver of Worlds
    There are plenty here who are patient and more than willing to wait. But others completely throw the toys out of the crib and have written off AOC already because of missed deadlines but that's their choice and they are entitled to it. Though I suspect most will quietly slink back when launch gets closer.

    Though honestly for some the best course of action is to take a step back and forget about AOC for a while.
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    Close your eyes spread your arms and always trust your cape.
  • KarthosKarthos Member, Braver of Worlds
    edited August 1
    I don't think we're THAT far behind to be honest. The server backend delay was unexpected, sure, but it's not like the entire studio ground to a halt during that time.

    2021 is totally do-able still if APOC testing goes well. When they start leaving the servers up 24hrs, that will be a good sign.

    It's definitely too much to ask for 2020 release, but I bet we get to Alpha 2 by the end of that year, and a persistent Alpha will tide a majority of people over.
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  • MermaidTearsMermaidTears Member
    edited August 3
    I really think that the game will be out late summer 2020
    Most MMO's never release on the actual day its set... besides i don't mind waiting..Remember the state Bless online was released. That won't happen with AOC ♦
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  • ViymirViymir Member, Braver of Worlds
    What I dont quite understand is why we cant test the MMO at the same time as testing Apocalypse. I guess there is a technical reason for this, but not one I understand or have seen explained.
  • GubstepGubstep Member, Braver of Worlds
    neomir wrote: »
    What I dont quite understand is why we cant test the MMO at the same time as testing Apocalypse. I guess there is a technical reason for this, but not one I understand or have seen explained.

    Because it's pointless to test MMO features when basic connectivity is a problem and it's even a bigger waste of time to try to test new features that rely on a system that is established as not working.

    Let's say you're building a car and you put a very powerful motor/transmission in the car, but put these tiny 10" wheels on it. You then put the car on a tester, put the pedal to the floor and it shows that the speedometer is inaccurate with it's reading. The most probable cause is the little wheels, but it could be a speed sensor malfunctioning, timing is off, electrical short, all sorts of things.... BUT, it's probably the little wheels.

    Can you see how much time is wasted if we start testing features with a bad foundation? It's not only frustrating for both parties, but it makes debugging an absolute nightmare. Testing should be about when a certain feature set is SUPPOSED to be working, but bugs are uncovered that weren't previously known. If they're already aware of a problem that all the other systems rely on, we're not doing them any favors by "testing" a system they already know is broken from the start.

    I hope that makes sense. It's difficult to describe development environments and processes. Internally they are testing lots of these systems, like the Caravan system they just showcased in the last video. Developers are able to design this mock up of what the server calls look like and I imagine they have some sort of internal server they can bounce requests off of to make sure that they system is responding correctly to certain server requests. But it doesn't make much sense to integrate those systems into a framework that's not finished and hasn't been tested.
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  • ViymirViymir Member, Braver of Worlds
    @bazgrim thanks for the explanation made sense :smile:
  • I dont know, where people come from calling IS "behind"...
    They work on it okay? Its going to take time. They dont have anything to build their technology on, so they have to create it from the ground up.
    The only reason, why you think that they are "behind" is because they gave us updates from the very beginning, other games take 5-8 years to complete development....
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  • NagashNagash Member, Leader of Men
    Damokles wrote: »
    I dont know, where people come from calling IS "behind"...
    They work on it okay? Its going to take time. They dont have anything to build their technology on, so they have to create it from the ground up.
    The only reason, why you think that they are "behind" is because they gave us updates from the very beginning, other games take 5-8 years to complete development....

    I think intrepid has to take some of the blame with this. Steven did say ashes would be released before 2020 so I can see why people would say its behind schedule. Most long-time followers knew it would not reach the deadline but steven did push that date.
    nJ0vUSm.gif

    The dead do not squabble as this land’s rulers do. The dead have no desires, petty jealousies or ambitions. A world of the dead is a world at peace
  • Wandering MistWandering Mist Member, Founder
    Nagash wrote: »
    Damokles wrote: »
    I dont know, where people come from calling IS "behind"...
    They work on it okay? Its going to take time. They dont have anything to build their technology on, so they have to create it from the ground up.
    The only reason, why you think that they are "behind" is because they gave us updates from the very beginning, other games take 5-8 years to complete development....

    I think intrepid has to take some of the blame with this. Steven did say ashes would be released before 2020 so I can see why people would say its behind schedule. Most long-time followers knew it would not reach the deadline but steven did push that date.

    He did indeed and it was definitely a mistake.
  • NagashNagash Member, Leader of Men
    Nagash wrote: »
    Damokles wrote: »
    I dont know, where people come from calling IS "behind"...
    They work on it okay? Its going to take time. They dont have anything to build their technology on, so they have to create it from the ground up.
    The only reason, why you think that they are "behind" is because they gave us updates from the very beginning, other games take 5-8 years to complete development....

    I think intrepid has to take some of the blame with this. Steven did say ashes would be released before 2020 so I can see why people would say its behind schedule. Most long-time followers knew it would not reach the deadline but steven did push that date.

    He did indeed and it was definitely a mistake.

    at least he owned up and told us it's no longer a viable launch date (better than most AAA games)
    nJ0vUSm.gif

    The dead do not squabble as this land’s rulers do. The dead have no desires, petty jealousies or ambitions. A world of the dead is a world at peace
  • Wandering MistWandering Mist Member, Founder
    Nagash wrote: »
    Nagash wrote: »
    Damokles wrote: »
    I dont know, where people come from calling IS "behind"...
    They work on it okay? Its going to take time. They dont have anything to build their technology on, so they have to create it from the ground up.
    The only reason, why you think that they are "behind" is because they gave us updates from the very beginning, other games take 5-8 years to complete development....

    I think intrepid has to take some of the blame with this. Steven did say ashes would be released before 2020 so I can see why people would say its behind schedule. Most long-time followers knew it would not reach the deadline but steven did push that date.

    He did indeed and it was definitely a mistake.

    at least he owned up and told us it's no longer a viable launch date (better than most AAA games)

    Oh absolutely and I respect Steven for that. Most CEOs in the game industry would take that kind of situation and try to pin the blame on someone else or make up some corporate PR rubbish to justify it.

    “it’s not how you launch, it’s what it becomes,”
    - Todd Howard

  • NagashNagash Member, Leader of Men
    Nagash wrote: »
    Nagash wrote: »
    Damokles wrote: »
    I dont know, where people come from calling IS "behind"...
    They work on it okay? Its going to take time. They dont have anything to build their technology on, so they have to create it from the ground up.
    The only reason, why you think that they are "behind" is because they gave us updates from the very beginning, other games take 5-8 years to complete development....

    I think intrepid has to take some of the blame with this. Steven did say ashes would be released before 2020 so I can see why people would say its behind schedule. Most long-time followers knew it would not reach the deadline but steven did push that date.

    He did indeed and it was definitely a mistake.

    at least he owned up and told us it's no longer a viable launch date (better than most AAA games)

    Oh absolutely and I respect Steven for that. Most CEOs in the game industry would take that kind of situation and try to pin the blame on someone else or make up some corporate PR rubbish to justify it.

    “it’s not how you launch, it’s what it becomes,”
    - Todd Howard

    It just works ^^
    nJ0vUSm.gif

    The dead do not squabble as this land’s rulers do. The dead have no desires, petty jealousies or ambitions. A world of the dead is a world at peace
  • AzathothAzathoth Member, Braver of Worlds
    I am happy they aren't releasing early or 'on time's as 'Early access.'
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    +1 Skull & Crown metal coin
  • Wandering MistWandering Mist Member, Founder
    Nagash wrote: »
    Nagash wrote: »
    Nagash wrote: »
    Damokles wrote: »
    I dont know, where people come from calling IS "behind"...
    They work on it okay? Its going to take time. They dont have anything to build their technology on, so they have to create it from the ground up.
    The only reason, why you think that they are "behind" is because they gave us updates from the very beginning, other games take 5-8 years to complete development....

    I think intrepid has to take some of the blame with this. Steven did say ashes would be released before 2020 so I can see why people would say its behind schedule. Most long-time followers knew it would not reach the deadline but steven did push that date.

    He did indeed and it was definitely a mistake.

    at least he owned up and told us it's no longer a viable launch date (better than most AAA games)

    Oh absolutely and I respect Steven for that. Most CEOs in the game industry would take that kind of situation and try to pin the blame on someone else or make up some corporate PR rubbish to justify it.

    “it’s not how you launch, it’s what it becomes,”
    - Todd Howard

    It just works ^^

    Oh that it does :D
  • NagashNagash Member, Leader of Men
    I would give you 10 likes if I could
    nJ0vUSm.gif

    The dead do not squabble as this land’s rulers do. The dead have no desires, petty jealousies or ambitions. A world of the dead is a world at peace
  • Nagash wrote: »
    Nagash wrote: »
    Nagash wrote: »
    Damokles wrote: »
    I dont know, where people come from calling IS "behind"...
    They work on it okay? Its going to take time. They dont have anything to build their technology on, so they have to create it from the ground up.
    The only reason, why you think that they are "behind" is because they gave us updates from the very beginning, other games take 5-8 years to complete development....

    I think intrepid has to take some of the blame with this. Steven did say ashes would be released before 2020 so I can see why people would say its behind schedule. Most long-time followers knew it would not reach the deadline but steven did push that date.

    He did indeed and it was definitely a mistake.

    at least he owned up and told us it's no longer a viable launch date (better than most AAA games)

    Oh absolutely and I respect Steven for that. Most CEOs in the game industry would take that kind of situation and try to pin the blame on someone else or make up some corporate PR rubbish to justify it.

    “it’s not how you launch, it’s what it becomes,”
    - Todd Howard

    It just works ^^

    Oh that it does :D

    LOL-Button
    LOL-Button
    LOL-Button
    LOL-Button
    LOL-Button
    LOL-Button
    LOL-Button
    LOL-Button
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    I didnt know this even existed, you have my eternal thanks! :D
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  • flatlineflatline Member, Founder
    I believe some time in 2020 for sure
  • NagashNagash Member, Leader of Men
    It's still in my head
    nJ0vUSm.gif

    The dead do not squabble as this land’s rulers do. The dead have no desires, petty jealousies or ambitions. A world of the dead is a world at peace
  • finndofinndo Member, Braver of Worlds
    I never expected a 2019 launch, Late Fall 2020 earliest, and late 2021 or early 2022 in my nightmares. I also am aware of a "normal" development lifecycle for MMOs and actually was hoping it wouldn't launch in 2019. I really think they should follow the same path as Albion Online did with a lengthy beta period, but not open to everyone. Similar to the 24x7 perpetual alpha server we are expecting which is a better idea IMHO than Albion's extended beta with wipes.

    I like the overall plan Steven has laid out, but have never been down with the timing. There is no room for error, or fixing issues like what we have just gone through over the last 7 months. As previously said though, it doesn't mean the rest of the team has been sitting around waiting, hopefully this will mean that when things get going again we will see more "jumps" in development.

    I also hope Steve can keep up his promise of "leaving some surprises for launch" Although I am not sure how he will be able to with a persistent Alpha server (was the official wording persistent or perpetual? I know I've used both just now...) unless it has a major patch day on "release" to add back the missing content...

    I think that moving forward they should add a small UI element that could be triggered from the quests screen to "give more details about the quest" and use that to put testing targets in, not just things to do for rewards.
    Such a:
    1. use the potion launcher to destroy a house multiple times
    2. block a power attack with a shield several times
    3. go to x,y and try to walk through the tree there


    testing quests, something to try and improve things players have complained about, but the team was not able to validate. I don't see how these could auto clear and would simply be data grabs they would have to be looking out for on the backend. Unless they enable an in game recorder with a "submit the last 1/3/5/10 minutes of gameplay as a bug report" option. (possibly with the option to pick one of the testing quests or "other" as a subject for the report.

    All of which would take extra time to develop outside of making progress on the game, but would be reusable for the rest of the development cycle.

    At this point I am still holding off on buying a new GPU as I was doing so specifically for this game. Maybe next year.
  • OrcLuckOrcLuck Member, Braver of Worlds
    I didn't expect 2019 or 2020 even, I just wondered where the actual timeline really lies. I don't want to find out that we have a new partner and a new agreement because the timeline went past the funding we've done...before we actually get a word in on whats happening.
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