I am expecting a Summer 2020 or Fall 2020 launch. I believe we will get Alpha 1 in late November, Alpha 2 in January, followed by beta in March-May and depending on how the previous test have gone a launch in either the Summer or the Fall.
I do believe the team is behind schedule, but I am prefer that to a pushing out a product that isn't ready. As people have mentioned the delays in some aspects of the game doesn't exactly translate to delays in all aspects of the game. Different teams have been able to continue their work in different departments.
I think most people on this forum have been apart of launches where the game was rushed to be completed by a previous deadline and I don't think of us want Ashes to do that.
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mrwafflesMember, Leader of Men, Kickstarter, Alpha One
What I dont quite understand is why we cant test the MMO at the same time as testing Apocalypse. I guess there is a technical reason for this, but not one I understand or have seen explained.
Open world vs instance based is my guess. Instance base is a lot easier to test. each instance can collect data and keep it organized for a rapid QA/Development look over. Whereas open world is weeding through bunch of bug reports. Also instance based bugs are probably a lot easier to reproduce as they have a sandbox environment and open world are millions of constantly changing variables.
7 points down in the first quarter. If we go 14 points down you can worry. If we go 21 points down Steven will need to look for more investors and we better hope he has a good game to show them by that point. If we go 28 points down we probably lose the game. Don't cry in the first quarter, at least wait until half-time.
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Wandering MistModerator, Member, Founder, Kickstarter, Alpha One
7 points down in the first quarter. If we go 14 points down you can worry. If we go 21 points down Steven will need to look for more investors and we better hope he has a good game to show them by that point. If we go 28 points down we probably lose the game. Don't cry in the first quarter, at least wait until half-time.
Man you are just full of cheer today aren't ya :P
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Wandering MistModerator, Member, Founder, Kickstarter, Alpha One
What I dont quite understand is why we cant test the MMO at the same time as testing Apocalypse. I guess there is a technical reason for this, but not one I understand or have seen explained.
Open world vs instance based is my guess. Instance base is a lot easier to test. each instance can collect data and keep it organized for a rapid QA/Development look over. Whereas open world is weeding through bunch of bug reports. Also instance based bugs are probably a lot easier to reproduce as they have a sandbox environment and open world are millions of constantly changing variables.
All just my guess though
That does play a part in it, mainly because I doubt they have actually finished crafting the mmorpg world yet. Plus one of the things they have been working on recently has been the servers and the netcode which requires stress tests to check performance. The best way to stress test a platform is to put as many people in as small a space as possible and have them do a ton of actions. A battle Royal setting is the perfect way to do a stress test.
As I see it there are still 3 things that could cause delays. Corruption, Animal Husbandry, and the breaking system. The breaking system is already under development and seems to be going well so we might catch up at half-time. If we hit the other two delays Steven might need more money. All the dev make good money and they're on the clock the entire time we're delayed.That's why we see people doing jobs they don't normally do. He has to find them something to do other than sit there getting paid for nothing.This is just normal business as usual. I've been a manager most of my life so I've seen it before. The depts that were ahead run out of things to do, the departments that were behind have to stress and scramble because everything is waiting on them, and the departments that were on time stay that way or run out of things to do. It depends on how long the delay lasts. We've been delayed 5 months. That's a long time, but we don't know what else is going on.
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DygzMember, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
It's typical of Agile management for devs to help out other depts.
What's been delayed is outside testing; not development.
But, release is going to be delayed to accommodate outside testing.
The devs will continue to work on new content even after launch.
I don't see funding as an issue - especially since some of us continue to pay more than double for monthly cosmetics than we will for the sub.
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Wandering MistModerator, Member, Founder, Kickstarter, Alpha One
As I see it there are still 3 things that could cause delays. Corruption, Animal Husbandry, and the breaking system. The breaking system is already under development and seems to be going well so we might catch up at half-time. If we hit the other two delays Steven might need more money. All the dev make good money and they're on the clock the entire time we're delayed.That's why we see people doing jobs they don't normally do. He has to find them something to do other than sit there getting paid for nothing.This is just normal business as usual. I've been a manager most of my life so I've seen it before. The depts that were ahead run out of things to do, the departments that were behind have to stress and scramble because everything is waiting on them, and the departments that were on time stay that way or run out of things to do. It depends on how long the delay lasts. We've been delayed 5 months. That's a long time, but we don't know what else is going on.
I'm not sure what you mean by the "breaking system". The corruption system shouldn't take too long for them to make unless things go absolutely terribly during testing forcing them to re-think the entire system. I agree though that Animal Husbandry is a huge undertaking and honestly I have no idea how they will do it justice.
The thing about games development is that usually you have a bunch of specialists all working on individual things that come together to form a cohesive game. If the engineering team falls behind you can't just get someone from the animation team to step in to help them (unless you are really lucky and have someone who is experienced in both roles - very very unlikely). Typically when it comes to games development, the team that finishes first is often the art design team, as they need to finish what they are doing in order for the other teams to do their work.
This isn't too big of a problem because once the art design team has finished their core work they are usually given cosmetic items like weapon skins, etc. These things will generally use the same animation skeleton and so they can churn these cosmetics out while the other teams finish off their work. The bonus is that if needed, the cosmetics can be sold to players and help shore up any financial short-fall caused by other delays.
Of course, this is the theory behind it, and it doesn't always work.
This is my thought about the release of the mmorpg.
I personally think a launch before 2021 is not happening.
The thing is we are now with APOC is november last year.
APOC will get a few test before it will be a weekend test.
This will probably take 2~3 weeks.
Then you get the 24/7 of the BR.
And then start of test castle siege I hope.
Another 2 months later we start testing horde.
Hopefully 2 months after this A1 starts with testing.
Time frame so far 4~5 months.
So if lucky all goes well and we have A1 testing in Q1 or Q2 next year.
Now this will be my assumption, A1 testing will last about 9~12 months.
The reason behind this will be:
To many changes;
Completed redo of systems;
Community opinions;
New systems need bug fixes;
Development.
So now we are in Q1 or Q2 2021, A2 will start which will probably take another 6 months same reasons as A1.
Now Beta will hit with beta 1 and 2 where everything will be about polishing the systems another 3 months.
This will conclude in a release somewhere Q4 2021 or Q1 2022.
This is all my opinion and based on my expierience developing systems and on not another big delay like remaking the backend.
What I like to keep in mind (from my persona experience) is that the major man-hour time sink for development is asset creation.. 3d models, animations, textures, environments, ect, ect, ect.. This hasn't slowed down, and there haven't been any (that we know of) major setbacks in this area... If anything, it's ramped up to full production over the past six months or more... with designs, storyboards, storylines, quests, all still marching on..
Now that the backend has received major "re-tweaks".. and I'm sure there has been rudimentary work on the game systems themselves.. I don't feel we are "years" out at all. We are getting Apoc back within a few weeks.. and if things go well, the next step, then the next.. It could all move quite fast actually..
If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on between June and Sept of 2020... for a launch of the MMO.. Roughly a year from now... Being conservative.. It could very well happen as early as April.... Who knows...
I'm thinking, up to a month for Alpha 1, three Months(ish) for Alpha 2, and Beta 1 and 2 being a few weeks to a month combined... I remember, far, far back, it was mentioned the betas would be fairly short... This is no gmail were it's in beta for years (is it still? heh).
Just my 2 cents, of course.. (Ex 3d modeler animator)
The Talking FishMember, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
I don't expect A1 to hit before Q1 2020 tbh, most likely Q2.
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KaienMember, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
I never expected 2019 release im hopeful for 2020 but expecting 2021 or beyond, i just hope they do not push it out too soon that has happend with way to many MMOs.
People stick around for a month or so and then move on because the game is in a bad shape and then the devs keep patch it and after a year or so its a ok game
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lunarskyMember, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
I'm expecting a 2021 release. Q1 or Q2.
I expect APOC to take up the rest of this year and AoC focused alphas/betas to take up all of 2020.
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NagashMember, Leader of Men, Kickstarter, Alpha One
I expect APOC to take up the rest of this year and AoC focused alphas/betas to take up all of 2020.
That does sound like the most realistic time frame
I agree with my boney friend.
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VarkunMember, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
edited August 2019
Nagash friends lol
I am sure he only views us as potential recruits for his army.
As for how far behind we are will have an idea when alpha 1 gets here because imo every month before we get alpha 1 is another months delay around 6 months and counting as of now.
But that is just my take on it.
Close your eyes spread your arms and always trust your cape.
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AtamaMember, Braver of Worlds, Kickstarter, Alpha One
Comments
I do believe the team is behind schedule, but I am prefer that to a pushing out a product that isn't ready. As people have mentioned the delays in some aspects of the game doesn't exactly translate to delays in all aspects of the game. Different teams have been able to continue their work in different departments.
I think most people on this forum have been apart of launches where the game was rushed to be completed by a previous deadline and I don't think of us want Ashes to do that.
Open world vs instance based is my guess. Instance base is a lot easier to test. each instance can collect data and keep it organized for a rapid QA/Development look over. Whereas open world is weeding through bunch of bug reports. Also instance based bugs are probably a lot easier to reproduce as they have a sandbox environment and open world are millions of constantly changing variables.
All just my guess though
Man you are just full of cheer today aren't ya :P
That does play a part in it, mainly because I doubt they have actually finished crafting the mmorpg world yet. Plus one of the things they have been working on recently has been the servers and the netcode which requires stress tests to check performance. The best way to stress test a platform is to put as many people in as small a space as possible and have them do a ton of actions. A battle Royal setting is the perfect way to do a stress test.
As I see it there are still 3 things that could cause delays. Corruption, Animal Husbandry, and the breaking system. The breaking system is already under development and seems to be going well so we might catch up at half-time. If we hit the other two delays Steven might need more money. All the dev make good money and they're on the clock the entire time we're delayed.That's why we see people doing jobs they don't normally do. He has to find them something to do other than sit there getting paid for nothing.This is just normal business as usual. I've been a manager most of my life so I've seen it before. The depts that were ahead run out of things to do, the departments that were behind have to stress and scramble because everything is waiting on them, and the departments that were on time stay that way or run out of things to do. It depends on how long the delay lasts. We've been delayed 5 months. That's a long time, but we don't know what else is going on.
What's been delayed is outside testing; not development.
But, release is going to be delayed to accommodate outside testing.
The devs will continue to work on new content even after launch.
I don't see funding as an issue - especially since some of us continue to pay more than double for monthly cosmetics than we will for the sub.
I'm not sure what you mean by the "breaking system". The corruption system shouldn't take too long for them to make unless things go absolutely terribly during testing forcing them to re-think the entire system. I agree though that Animal Husbandry is a huge undertaking and honestly I have no idea how they will do it justice.
The thing about games development is that usually you have a bunch of specialists all working on individual things that come together to form a cohesive game. If the engineering team falls behind you can't just get someone from the animation team to step in to help them (unless you are really lucky and have someone who is experienced in both roles - very very unlikely). Typically when it comes to games development, the team that finishes first is often the art design team, as they need to finish what they are doing in order for the other teams to do their work.
This isn't too big of a problem because once the art design team has finished their core work they are usually given cosmetic items like weapon skins, etc. These things will generally use the same animation skeleton and so they can churn these cosmetics out while the other teams finish off their work. The bonus is that if needed, the cosmetics can be sold to players and help shore up any financial short-fall caused by other delays.
Of course, this is the theory behind it, and it doesn't always work.
I personally think a launch before 2021 is not happening.
The thing is we are now with APOC is november last year.
APOC will get a few test before it will be a weekend test.
This will probably take 2~3 weeks.
Then you get the 24/7 of the BR.
And then start of test castle siege I hope.
Another 2 months later we start testing horde.
Hopefully 2 months after this A1 starts with testing.
Time frame so far 4~5 months.
So if lucky all goes well and we have A1 testing in Q1 or Q2 next year.
Now this will be my assumption, A1 testing will last about 9~12 months.
The reason behind this will be:
To many changes;
Completed redo of systems;
Community opinions;
New systems need bug fixes;
Development.
So now we are in Q1 or Q2 2021, A2 will start which will probably take another 6 months same reasons as A1.
Now Beta will hit with beta 1 and 2 where everything will be about polishing the systems another 3 months.
This will conclude in a release somewhere Q4 2021 or Q1 2022.
This is all my opinion and based on my expierience developing systems and on not another big delay like remaking the backend.
Now that the backend has received major "re-tweaks".. and I'm sure there has been rudimentary work on the game systems themselves.. I don't feel we are "years" out at all. We are getting Apoc back within a few weeks.. and if things go well, the next step, then the next.. It could all move quite fast actually..
If I were a betting man, I'd put my money on between June and Sept of 2020... for a launch of the MMO.. Roughly a year from now... Being conservative.. It could very well happen as early as April.... Who knows...
I'm thinking, up to a month for Alpha 1, three Months(ish) for Alpha 2, and Beta 1 and 2 being a few weeks to a month combined... I remember, far, far back, it was mentioned the betas would be fairly short... This is no gmail were it's in beta for years (is it still? heh).
Just my 2 cents, of course.. (Ex 3d modeler animator)
People stick around for a month or so and then move on because the game is in a bad shape and then the devs keep patch it and after a year or so its a ok game
I expect APOC to take up the rest of this year and AoC focused alphas/betas to take up all of 2020.
That does sound like the most realistic time frame
I agree with my boney friend.
I am sure he only views us as potential recruits for his army.
As for how far behind we are will have an idea when alpha 1 gets here because imo every month before we get alpha 1 is another months delay around 6 months and counting as of now.
But that is just my take on it.
Sad but true
LoL-Button
I wouldn't be surprised if that's the next bullshit PR line Randy Pitchford comes out with. (he's a wizard too didn't ya know)
should we place bets ^^
Not much else to do at this point. We're all hungry for more but being negative is no fun for anyone
Are we betting Embers?